Opinion: The Bittersweetness of Smart-but-Scared Marquee Matchmaking

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Editor's note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

I don’t need to point out to you that Holly Holm’s demolition of Ronda Rousey was an instantly indelible moment. It’s not just that Holm’s efforts are a mortal lock for 2015 “Knockout of the Year” and “Upset of the Year” hardware; her handiwork in Melbourne, Australia, was one of those “Where were you?” moments that are few and far between on that scale in the sport’s history. We are in an MMA climate where we’re constantly fed fights, yet constantly thirst for the rare, inspirational happenings at the highest level, and here Holm just opened the door to a whole new mixed martial arts universe. It only stands to reason that almost a week after the fact, on a weekend with Ultimate Fighting Championship, Bellator MMA and World Series of Fighting cards, Holm and Rousey still dominate the conversation.

Rest assured, a part of me deeply wanted to write a column about Neil Magny, Iron Man of the sport’s collective heart, main eventing on short notice to hit the five-fight mark in the Octagon for the second straight calendar year. Yet, the aftershocks of Holm-Rousey still reverberate and resonate; a real, honest-to-goodness MMA happening, even in close hindsight, remains a bigger deal than just another fight card. Keep this in mind for a moment.

Since Sunday, the majority of questions I’ve seen, whether through email, social media or radio, are still Rousey-centric, which doesn’t surprise. Even if embarrassed, she’s MMA biggest star now and maybe ever. Plus, her career had featured next to no substantial adversity previously. As a result, her loss places new stress on old questions, like whether she’ll fight beyond this bout and what her Hollywood plans are. It also introduces new questions, like how quickly she needs to dump trainer Edmond Tarverdyan and whether she can psychologically cope with recognizing her own mortality. As mentioned, we have no real historical precedent for Rousey’s actions, given that her pro MMA career has always been onward and upward and, by and large, sunshine and rainbows. I have no idea what this woman will do and am nowhere near clever or spooky enough to tap into her psyche.

Here’s what I do know: When those answers come, they come, but in the interim, no one -- not the UFC, Holm or an MMA fan -- should want to sit around and wait for Rousey’s whim.

“Obviously, we don't make fights the night of the fight, but the rematch makes a lot of sense,” UFC President Dana White said immediately following UFC 193. For a moment, let’s leave aside White’s amusing claim that he’s not in the business of “making fights the night of the fight” despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. In this case, a rematch and more specifically, an immediate rematch, isn’t the sudden whim of White, Lorenzo Fertitta or anyone else. It is a philosophical and strategic decision assimilated by UFC brass. In frankness, it does make a lot of sense, but does that actually make it the best option? Not for me.

Here’s the debate: Rousey is unlikely to return before the landmark UFC 200 card, scheduled for July 9 in Las Vegas; therefore, if a Holm-Rousey rematch is next on the docket, it means “The Preacher’s Daughter” will spend eight months on the shelf despite emerging from her brilliant triumph unscathed. If Holm were to fight in the interim and win, it would help her individual profile and swell the hype for her second clash with Rousey. If she fought and lost, it would jeopardize if not entirely destroy the viability of a lucrative rematch with “Rowdy.”

This latter notion is a completely sensible stance, but just because a position is justifiable doesn’t mean it is the best course of action in a given context. I understand and sympathize with the fear that if Holm’s next encounter was against a woman not named Rousey, something could go awry and complicate the hypothetical best-laid plans. Nonetheless, for my taste, it’s a philosophy all too pessimistic and ignores the truest appetite of fans.

To even entertain the notion of a Holm title defense before a rematch with Rousey, we need to at least consider whether or not it’s feasible for the champion. She bashed Rousey without taking any appreciable damage, and when talking to head trainer Greg Jackson this week, he was of the opinion that while it was ultimately not his decision, he would prefer for Holm to return in late March or early April. On this accord, I’m comfortable deferring to the typically buttoned-up Jackson’s insight on his own fighter, both with respect to her physical fitness, as well as his opinion on what is competitively best for her development.

You don’t need to ask whether the UFC can find Holm a suitable challenger. As I mentioned before, White’s claim of not doing fight-night matchmaking is absurd, largely because its most recent victim was Miesha Tate; she was promised a third crack at Rousey following her July win over Jessica Eye in a fight that the UFC and Fox explicitly tagged as a title eliminator. The UFC is operating under the expectation of Holm-Rousey for UFC 200, so the promotion’s preferred target is presently a “No, no, for real this time!” title eliminator between Tate and Amanda Nunes for early 2016. A Nunes-Tate bout is a fantastic bantamweight clash any day of the week, but why have one challenger when you could have two? Scratch that. With Rousey included, it becomes three.

Give Nunes another fight. Let her put her athleticism, ferocity and uncommon punching power on display again. Manufacture the goodwill with Tate and scorned fans by giving her the title bid against a fresh champion. If you’re worried about Holm holding up her end of the promotional bargain or not being electric enough for the media, Tate is there to help. She is easily one of the UFC’s most media-savvy veterans and remains one of the sport’s fan favorites, routinely responsible for the largest audiences and pops at the company’s fan-oriented events, weigh-ins and open workouts alike.

Would a Holm-Tate fight draw big on pay-per-view? It’s doubtful, but it’s myopic to invalidate the bout’s viability on that count alone. No, it won’t draw near one million buys like a Rousey fight and likely not a half million either without an especially beefy co-main event alongside it. However, how many UFC bouts draw big on their own now? Think about how many UFC fights there are and what a paltry few of them matter. Given how thoroughly the company is about to empty its promotional clip over the next few weeks, it will be in need of recharging heading into the next year. Holm-Tate fight is still one of the most compelling fights Zuffa can reasonably offer in its hypothetical first quarter of 2016 schedule, especially with whatever unique interest Holm may garner from non-traditional fight fans and media from the Rousey win.

No, promotional magnetism isn’t simply passed like a torch or absorbed when defeating a foe, so Holm is not going to draw Rousey numbers next time out. However, we’re in an MMA landscape marked by constant handwringing and hair pulling over the moribund state of the heavyweight division, how desperately the lightweight division needs another B.J. Penn, how stunted the bantamweight division has become and how the greatest flyweight ever can’t attract any major attention.

The allure of “the woman who beat Ronda Rousey” still won’t be as strong as Rousey herself, but you can’t possibly tell me that striking while the iron is hot -- Holm has gained over a million social media followers in a week -- and figuring out what “Holly Holm numbers” are is a greater promotional misstep than Demetrious Johnson headlining two pay-per-views this year. It’s entirely feasible that whatever carryover from Holm’s knockout of Rousey does exist can manifest into 300,000-400,000 PPV buys with a decent card around it and suitable UFC promotion.

No MMA fighter, man or woman, should be held to the standard of a Rousey, a Georges St. Pierre or a Brock Lesnar. They’re exceedingly rare breeds and do not represent a typically achievable standard, yet they’re the fighters against which “MMA draws” are compared. Boxing darling and supposed superstar-in-the-making Gennady Golovkin drew 150,000 buys in his first PPV outing in October. If Holm can go out on her own and eclipse 300,000 buys, it should be considered a damn fine outing.

This does not even mention that Holm -- boxer, kickboxer, mixed martial artist -- is a prizefighter and is trying to get paid. She’s 34 years old, with long boxing and kickboxing careers behind her, knockout losses in both included. A Rousey fight might be the bigger payday, but when White says “the rematch is what people would want to see,” it’s disingenuous in that it doesn’t have to be an either-or proposition.

Again, I sympathize with the fear of a cluster----. I know that UFC brass is keenly aware that 42 of the promotion’s main or co-main events this year have been canceled due to injury, and that’s just those that were officially announced with bout agreements signed. The fact is that even if Holm has to wait until July to fight, she’s still going to be in the gym training and at any point could get hurt. Even if she gets to a Rousey rematch next summer, Rousey herself could get hurt in training. If the UFC’s matchmaking is ultimately going to be governed by the fear of training injuries, what is the point of having fights at all?

If Holm loses, there’s an even more legitimate way to satisfy the existing promise of Rousey-Tate 3 at UFC 200, if that particular event and date are so important to you. Holm will still be the woman who kicked off Rousey’s block and can fight her down the line. If Holm wins but is injured in the process and the world can't have the Holm-Rousey rematch at UFC 200, who gives a damn? Do you really think that Zuffa won’t find a way to bolster the bill for an annually crucial show like its early-July PPV, never mind a numeric milestone like UFC 200? Even if Rousey and Holm fell off the face of this planet tomorrow, the company will find a way to sell UFC 200. Yet there is already a bizarre public fidelity to this concept, as if any other way of staging Rousey-Holm 2 is illegitimate, as if a Holm title defense postponing a Rousey rematch to September would be a human rights violation. Might I remind the world that UFC 193, monumental occasion and all, was originally conceived as Robbie Lawler-Carlos Condit and that Rousey-Holm was repurposed from UFC 195 in January? Things got screwed up and that was before Rousey lost -- an outcome that beforehand folks would have told you was a sure-fire disaster. Yet here we are, almost a week later, and the world is still turning. Fighters will still be fighting, and even if Rousey is now a source of memetic mockery, fans are sweeter than ever on the 135-pound division on the whole.

Zuffa’s road map to Holm-Rousey 2 isn’t unreasonable, but it’s not the best of things and certainly not the bravest. This is MMA, where you can attempt to manage risk but can never fully control it or its consequences. Worse, the UFC is balking at a potentially more lucrative, engaging path, not just out of risk management but out of fear -- fear of injury, fear of something that ultimately no one can control. Worse than that, it ignores fans’ desire to see the sport’s true elite in action more consistently and denies a newly minted champion the agency to further consummate her stardom, incredibly leaving Holm under Rousey’s thumb.

If the UFC gets its way, it means another eight months of talking about Rousey. After a while, it’d be nice to talk about the champion.