Prime Picks: PFL 2023 World Championships

The Professional Fighters League closes up shop stateside this year with its annual six-title event and six giant checks in tow. On this Thanksgiving week, we give thanks to the oddsmakers for providing some fair lines while also showing our appreciation for the bettors that allowed an ex-top Ultimate Fighting Championship contender to come in with huge plus odds. Join this short and sweet edition of Prime Picks as we peruse the heavyweight and welterweight finals, while also reminding the masses that the MMA version of Simon Phoenix still has some fight left.

Denis Goltsov (-240)

Heavyweight battles where one man closes in above -200 odds can merit caution, especially when a fighter coming in at plus money possesses one-punch knockout power. The highly favored Goltsov will try to cross the threshold for the first time in four tournaments, as he got close but never reached the finish line. Whether it came from a mauling by tough wrestler Ali Isaev, a blood-and-guts defeat to Ante Delija or geopolitics shutting down his chance at gold, the Russian is undoubtedly one of the unluckier competitors in his bracket. This may be his time to shine, as he fights a fellow striker and a taller man in Renan Ferreira, who has a nasty tendency to back straight up and lean back when avoiding blows. Only four inches shorter but giving up seven inches in the arms, Goltsov will need to approach carefully to crowd the rangier man. With grappling acumen in his back pocket, “The Russian Bogatyr” can throw off Ferreira with an approach that deftly mixes his punches with takedown attempts. Given the most likely scenario of his defeat coming if he charges in and gets clipped early, Goltsov, as this high of a favorite, still bears watching.

Of Ferreira’s nine knockout victories, six have been the clean variety where his opponent could no longer defend himself. That includes each of his four in the PFL cage, rendering the likes of Maurice Greene and Matheus Scheffel down and out before long. “Problema” may have a problem when encountering Goltsov, as most of his finishes have come in Round 1. Goltsov can meet him in the middle and trade, but ask Brandon Sayles what it was like taking punches into the third frame after he was out of steam. The best round for Ferreira will likely be the first, and if Goltsov does not get his chin cracked—or do the same to Ferreira—he can take over as the 6-foot-8 Brazilian wears out. Goltsov’s beard is not immaculate, but it does not generally get blasted in the early going.

Magomed Magomedkerimov (-155)

Magomedkerimov is the winningest fighter in company history for a reason—tied with Lance Palmer, although with five fewer losses. This 2023 championship tilt will rematch the 2018 titlist with the 2022 champion from a bout that took place in the 2021 playoffs. The Russian won a clear-cut decision, taking all three rounds without seeming to be in danger. Exploiting the takedown defense of his opponent, “MMK” put Sadibou Sy on his back foot, grounded him and did not let up. When the little bit of dust that rose settled, Magomedkerimov claimed the professional win without much resistance. Although Sy has unquestionably improved since that first meeting, winning seven straight, including a million bucks, the Russian can comfortably replicate that past success.

Nullification may have been Magomedkerimov’s most effective tool in their first meeting, taking practically all of Sy’s most dangerous items off the table completely. It was not simply the grappling that allowed Magomedkerimov to shut his opponent down, either, as he threw effective strikes and mixed in kicks with little fear of reprisal of a counter due to Sy anticipating the takedown. The 16 wins for the Dagestan native are opposite a single defeat when Ray Cooper III clubbed an unworried Magomedkerimov tossing out a half-hearted uppercut. If Magomedkerimov takes his foot off the gas for too long, Sy could stage a comeback, but look for the favorite—one with a line that may be giving Sy a bit too much respect with his puncher’s chance—to exploit the Swede’s still-imperfect defense and take the fight where he wants it to go.

Derek Brunson (+190)

What seems to be Brunson’s boggle? Is it his age, as the North Carolinian will be 40 in January? Have the miles on his body, starting with high school wrestling in Wilmington and going up through college into the sport of MMA, tolled on him? Did the 30-plus fights, facing some of the greatest men ever to do it, catch up with him? On the other hand, is it possible that Brunson has lost two straight against two current Top 3 middleweights in bouts where he finally matched his meet? Perhaps he is such a considerable underdog because he faded badly after about one round in each of those two outings. Ray Cooper III is not a spent force at 30, but his move to middleweight draws a tough foe.

When facing the elite 185ers in Dricus Du Plessis and Jared Cannonier, Brunson was not only in both fights but actively winning until the gas tank hit “E.” As if he told his corner to put him back in the fridge, Brunson’s performances went off cliffs as he could no longer push the pace like before. In part due to the durability of the fighters mentioned above, Brunson could not put them away, and his efforts backfired. The frontrunner status of the man who calls himself “The One” may not be as dangerous as it once was, but the wild and destructive Cooper can still be blitzed. Neither fighter likes to fight long, and energy reserves will be tested. Brunson is still in phenomenal shape, and the PFL is about to learn that it has just sent a maniac to catch one.