Prime Picks: UFC 277 ‘Pena vs. Nunes 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will continue its post-pandemic love affair with Texas, cementing The Lone Star State as its second-most visited destination during its return to worldwide shows. Two rematches populate the marquee, with the headliner bringing more betting confidence to the table than the co-main event preceding it. The UFC 277 edition of Prime Picks features potential revenge at night’s end, a hometown hero with possibly one last time to shine, an old lion who still has some tricks to display and a new kid on the block with fists like wrecking balls.

Amanda Nunes Wins Inside Distance (-125)

Even after a thorough shellacking from Julianna Pena for the better part of two nightmarish rounds, the former bantamweight queen clocks in as a hefty betting favorite in their rematch. Some bettors believe one of the biggest betting upsets in UFC history was nothing more than a fluke, with Nunes perhaps hampered by hubris, a poor weight cut, a rough training camp, familial concerns, hints of retirement or anything else that could be used to justify why Pena thrashed her. Based on their bodies of work the last few years, it is hard to argue against that belief. Barring another upset of not-as-historic proportions, the returning Nunes will be out for vengeance, and she will be almost singularly focused on putting a beating on the American.

Since 2017, Pena has suffered two submission losses to women Nunes defeated and amassed a record of just 3-2. Meanwhile, Nunes’ legendary two-division run led her to seven victories, including four finishes, prior to UFC 269. The only result that truly matters, however, is the one in which Pena marched Nunes down, did not shy away from a brawl and took everything the “Lioness” dished out, all while giving it back in spades. Staying right in Nunes’ face and showing she was not afraid of the champion worked brilliantly to Pena’s favor, as the Brazilian crumbled under the pressure and succumbed to a submission that was at least in part due to exhaustion. The pressure that Pena can exert could lead to another winning performance, and the line of “The Venezuelan Vixen” by tapout is a sizable +650.

Isolated training—Nunes has somewhat moved on from American Top Team—could benefit the Brazilian, who might remove herself from those looking to puff her up and instead bring in others specifically to work her to the bone. Practically every champion falls at some point, and the 34-year-old Nunes could simply have reached her competitive peak and had the division pass her by. The slightly younger Pena may have her number, just as Dennis Hallman twice disabled Matt Hughes when the Country Breakfast proponent was on the come-up. Unless the shifting in weight has gotten to Nunes, she should be dialed in and ready to wreck shop. A stoppage play at low minus territory is one that cannot be overlooked.

Derrick Lewis (-122)

Has Lewis finally reached the end of his rope? “The Black Beast” is youthful for the heavyweight division at 37. The question immediately surrounding Lewis following his crushing knockout loss to Tai Tuivasa involves how he will respond after getting beaten at his own game. Every one of his UFC defeats have been stoppages, but few get the better of Lewis in a ferocious striking exchange he likes to call “swangin’ and bangin’.” The Houston resident will still receive a homecoming of sorts, as he takes on once-beaten Russian Sergei Pavlovich, who receives a massive step up in competition after clubbing Shamil Abdurakhimov in March. Unless the wheels have completely fallen off this year, Lewis as a slight favorite should pay off.

Two months prior to his loss to Tuivasa, Lewis demolished Chris Daukaus, showing that his hands should still be very much feared. On the other hand, the relatively inactive Pavlovich reminded fans that he remains a factor at heavyweight by blasting Abdurakhimov with uppercuts. The uppercut is the favored weapon of the rangy Russian, who will have several inches of reach advantage where he will need it most. Pavlovich succeeds most when playing the bully, charging straight into combat and putting his hands in his opponent’s face. Lewis thrives in this setting and prefers to let someone come to him, as his hand speed can shock those who perceive him to be lumbering and stottering oaf. If one wants to maximize the value on a Lewis pick, check him at +165 for the knockout. If less than confident in Lewis, the fight lasting under 1.5 rounds at -140 is a decent backup plan that allows Pavlovich to score a quick knockout.

Anthony Smith (+380)

The riskiest of the four Prime Picks, Smith takes on an intelligent and surging counterpart in Magomed Ankalaev. The deck is certainly stacked against “Lionheart,” whose takedown defense is not historically the greatest. Meanwhile, Ankalaev’s offensive wrestling is comfortably effective. Fight miles are high for Smith, who started fighting in 2008 and has amassed 52 pro bouts since. Still, the only men to beat him at 205 pounds are all-time great Jon Jones, former champion Glover Teixeira and currently recovering contender Aleksandar Rakic, all of whom needed a great deal of cage time to get their hand raised. Ankalaev is a swarming striker but not the most reckless, and his three most recent wins have been methodical and relatively smart. Smith will always be threatening unless he is completely put away, making him a live dog against the second-highest favorite (-475) on the card.

Since moving to light heavyweight in 2018, all of Smith’s seven victories have come inside the distance, with a similar number of knockouts to submissions. The gas tank has never been an issue for the man who celebrates a 91% finish rate, as he pulled off late rear-naked chokes of Volkan Oezdemir and Alexander Gustafsson in 2018 and 2019. Where he can find himself in trouble is when Ankalaev goes for the hips and drags Smith to the ground, costing him the ability to use his nasty clinch strikes in his favor. Position over submission while doing damage from on top is Ankalaev’s path of relatively least resistance. If the Russian can get Smith stuck on his back and comfortably swats away triangle choke setups as the time progresses, this is his fight to win. With Smith being one of the quintessential fighter types who throws every strike with damaging intent and slashes away with dangerous elbows or quickly attacks with subs, there are ways that “Lionheart” can pull off the upset. He will likely have to catch the Russian making a mistake, which means that the comeback of Ankalaev by Decision at -105 is suitable as an alternative.

Hamdy Abdelwahab (-105)

Abdelwahab holds five professional MMA wins, not three, as his first two appearance took place under bareknuckle MMA rules. The sole difference, as directly confirmed by Fight Finder, was that these were just MMA fights without gloves. At one of these small shows, a fighter hit an omoplata. Abdelwahab, an Egyptian Olympic wrestler, will become the first fighter born in Egypt to compete in the UFC, and he has done a great deal since debuting as a pro about nine months ago. Five wins, five knockouts and one speed: berserker mode. He may soon run into a wall that stops him from simply smashing through it in a few minutes, but Don'Tale Mayes is not likely to be that person, even with Abdelwahab entering his UFC debut on short notice.

The powerhouse from Cairo did prove he can go beyond the first round, but cardio issues for a fighter who swings as hard as Abdelwahab does with every blow will loom when someone takes everything he has to offer. While “The Hammer” has smashed through every obstacle to date, Mayes is invariably the toughest test of his career and someone who does not get blitzed early and put away. “Lord Kong” has never suffered a stoppage loss any earlier than 7:05 into a fight, and he has taken on multiple heavy hitters to date. With Olympic-level Greco-Roman wrestling to fall back on, Abdelwahab can change things up and put Mayes on his back if he does not like something he eats on the feet. From there, the massive Egyptian by way of Queens, N.Y., will comfortably do work without fear of reprisal. The possibility looms that Mayes ends up being a bit too durable to get finished, and with Abdelwahab as a pick’em, he is definitely worth a shot. If even more confident in his abilities, the knockout line is a sweet +330, and a Round 1 finish sits at +500.