Prime Picks: UFC 288 ‘Sterling vs. Cejudo’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Sarurday takes to New Jersey’s largest city for the first time since 2019, as it slowly spreads its wings and reintroduces itself to fans around the world. A baker’s dozen bouts, where just three see odds above -200, give prospective bettors ample room to roam for this pay-per-view offering in Newark. Join us for the UFC 288 edition of Prime Picks, where we bestow respect to a former champion, call out the disrespect on a current titleholder, urge some caution on a late-notice matchup and present a pleasant plus-money parlay.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Jessica Andrade (-190)

While Andrade carries on with her a reputation as a wrecking machine and a fitting accompanying nickname of “Bate Estaca” or “Pile Driver,” she is far from an unstoppable force. Clocking in at around 5-foot-2, Andrade will at least not be as dwarfed as she was up in weight. The Brazilian is not the least bit concerned about being the smaller woman, at least in terms of stature and not sheer horsepower, and even Xiaonan Yan will be the taller, longer fighter back at strawweight. Andrade is all gas, no brakes and throws hard from start to finish. Those to beat the former 115-pound champ have done so by being stronger or more technical, whether it was Valentina Shevchenko tossing her around like a toy or Joanna Jedrzejczyk outworking her for 25 minutes. Yan will have to fight smart and stay away from the power for the entire duration of the match, as she has not displayed the ability to put someone away in the big leagues.

Yan maintains a high pace for three-round fights, but the Chinese contender largely has done so by ignoring most of the strikes to come her way and stringing combinations together. Should she enter the pocket with Andrade and throw down, it will go extremely poorly for her. But for one solid performance against ex-title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Yan has rarely displayed much of her own offensive grappling. This is a rough stylistic matchup for “Fury,” who will find herself staring down the fire and fury of a rampaging Brazilian aiming to climb the divisional ladder again. Taking a nip-tuck decision where she narrowly claims two rounds will be a tough ask, given how hard Andrade will be swinging at her for all three rounds. Even with Andrade approaching -200, she should cash with relative ease. For those wishing to push their luck, drilling down to Andrade landing the stoppage at +165 might be worthwhile.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

Gilbert Burns (-125)

Passing on the favored man in the co-main event is not a slight on “Durinho,” nor is it a vote of no confidence for him. It is instead a suggestion that betting on this fight is a veritable minefield. The questions loom large for both welterweights, as this pairing comes together on short notice and will last for five rounds if needed. Will the high activity catch up with Burns, as this will be his third fight in the span of less than five months? Can Belal Muhammad maintain his typical high pace with a bit over three weeks for a fight camp? Will either man flag after Round 3 concludes? Where will the fight take place? All these unknowns, especially the final quandary being that Muhammad can take the best of them down and keep them there, make this a tough proposition to lock down a pick. There are better options up and down the lineup.

Former lightweight Burns has brought his elite jiu-jitsu chops up in weight and finally displayed them by hitting an easy arm-triangle choke on Neil Magny. The bricks he calls fists also still get work done, even against larger men like current middleweight Khamzat Chimaev. The only two who have topped him at 170 pounds have done so with their fists, and Muhammad is a volume striker but does not possess one-shot power that hurts or even stuns most foes. Should Muhammad attempt to exploit Burns’ somewhat less-than-stellar wrestling defense, he might find himself in the belly of the beast given how well the Brazilian can force scrambles, hunt for sweeps or turn a corner in a hurry. It might be in Muhammad’s best interest to slow the fight down early and often. Should he be able to successfully embrace the grind for at least three rounds without getting cracked, he can finally, officially punch his ticket for a championship opportunity. It will be tough sledding and it might be able to go either way, but it is one that might be best enjoyed without risking hard-earned cash.

DOG WILL HUNT

Aljamain Sterling (-105)

With the champion barely dipped into minus territory, it is almost incorrect to call him an underdog. However, this pick’em—both men are at unfavored odds of -105 or above—allows Sterling to be considered the dog given that Henry Cejudo is hovering around anywhere from -115 to -125 depending on the sportsbook. The disrespect for Sterling is as consistent as ever, despite his sterling ledger that includes wins over some of the best in the division right now. Contentious or not, Sterling has not suffered a loss since a Marlon Moraes knee back in 2017, and by hook or by crook, he is the victor of eight straight. Each of his last three wins made some fan base or another cry foul, and perhaps remarkably, Sterling is poised to break the UFC bantamweight championship defense record of two. He has all the tools to beat the returning Cejudo, and he should not at all be counted out.

On its face, it might seem fair that this headliner is a coinflip, given the tools that Cejudo can offer and the foil he could be against the grappling-heavy Sterling. NCAA Division III wrestling, on paper, does not hold a candle to accolades of an Olympic gold medalist. Inside the Octagon, the lone man to ever put Cejudo on his back is all-time great Demetrious Johnson, while he has grounded nearly every one of his opponents in his tours at flyweight and bantamweight. If the grappling ends up cancelling out—a big if, to be sure, as Sterling’s takedown defense is far from sterling—then the two could wind up with long periods on the feet. This is where Sterling can gain the upper hand, as he will maintain a seven-inch reach advantage while likely serving as one of the tallest men “Triple C” has faced. His movement, timing and footwork can fluster Cejudo if he maintains enough space and is not backed up to the wall and thrown on the floor. With an intangible of activity strongly in the favor of the “Funk Master,” with four appearances since Cejudo last fought, Sterling can start off strong and never let his challenger get in the fight.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Movsar Evloev (-750)

Drew Dober-Matt Frevola Ends Inside Distance (-250)

Kalinn Williams (-310)

Total Odds: +110

Sprinkled across this event are a few pairings or likely outcomes that might not be individually worthwhile but join together for something reasonable. In this three-leg parlay, we check out a massive favorite taking on a late-notice opponent, a prelim banger that may end with one man needing smelling salts and a reliable action welterweight who should man the gates against a new entrant. The anchor for this play will exist on the main event, as unbeaten wrestler Evloev now finds himself greeting tall featherweight Diego Lopes. The 28-year-old Lopes failed on the third season of Dana White’s Contender Series to earn a contract, then lost in Houston a few months later. While he has bounced back with two knockouts, Lopes is going to run straight into a brick wall that not only hits back but also can toss him around like a sack of potatoes for 900 seconds if needed. While his line may shift radically when money flies in on him, Evloev is the anchor of this parlay for good reason.

The initial selection for the Dober-Frevola encounter was that Dober would prevail at around -210. Instead, giving a little more cushion in the event that Frevola gets it done, the option that this lightweight preliminary headliner ends by some kind of stoppage is the way to go. While the -250 for the finish may not be independently juicy, it fits perfectly in a limited accumulator thanks to the multiplier at hand. Both men are capable and more than willing to hunt for the knockout, and this should prove to be fistic fireworks until one falls. Whether it is Dober or Frevola that gets his chin checked—it also allows for a club-and-sub—it should be a safe consideration that this scrap will not end in the hands of the judges.

Opening up the first leg on this a la carte of fight prognostications is the heavy-handed Williams against debuting Peruvian Rolando Bedoya. While Bedoya surges into his promotional debut as the winner of his last 11, he is just a few wins removed from dispatching a 1-5 adversary. The level of competition in the Fusion Fighting Championship organization—one of the premier leagues in his native Peru—could be worse, but those competitors are generally on the regional scene for a reason. Here, the Chute Boxe fighter will come to blows with Williams, who has tested his mettle against several welterweight flamethrowers and come out with a winning record thus far. Williams will be by far the best fighter Bedoya has faced, while the inverse cannot be said of the 26-year-old neophyte at the moment. Bedoya is not a typically fast starter, and Williams could undoubtedly blow his doors off early. One way or another, “Khaos” prevailing will start this parlay off the right way.