Prime Picks: UFC 293 ‘Adesanya vs. Strickland’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday holds up its end of the bargain with a fight card in Sydney, although this is not a case of the company putting its best foot forward from a competitive or betting perspective. Ten of the 12 matchups see a fighter repping the Oceanic region, and seven of those are favored, along with one pick’em. Join the UFC 293 edition of Prime Picks as we swing for the fences with the big men, press pause on the hype behind one surging Aussie and pitch an upset loss play for a City Kickboxing featherweight.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Alexander Volkov (-250)

Starting off with a slight peek behind the curtain, it is our intentions to showcase betting lines for the top fights on the card. After all, generally speaking, those fighters are who the fans come to see. Throwing an early prelim on the top spot, even if it might be a more profitable line, may not be as interesting as breaking down a marquee matchup. Additionally, we try not to focus on a betting line above -200, unless it seems like an ultra-safe endeavor or one that might seem way off. With seven of the 12 bouts featuring a favored fighter at -250 or above, a series like this is pigeonholed into having to address one of those lopsided plays. Therefore, we look to the co-main event, rather than trying to throw a dart as to whether the headliner will end in a certain way.

Based on their styles, this is a terrible fight for boisterous local Tai Tuivasa. The beer-swilling brawler is coming off two deflating defeats to longer, rangier strikers that put the hurt on him, and UFC matchmakers are doing him no favors by pitting him against Volkov and his 80-inch reach. Worse yet, Volkov fights quite cerebrally, frequently leading with his growingly powerful jab and an effective front kick. The men to beat him in the Octagon have done one of the following: outwrestle him (Curtis Blaydes), beat him at his own game (Ciryl Gane), fearlessly crash the pocket to wrangle a submission (Tom Aspinall) or blast him with seconds to spare as Volkov cruised (Derrick Lewis). Unfortunately for the man sometimes called “Shoeyvasa,” he excels at none of those things.

It will be in Tuivasa’s best interest to keep this fight as close as he possibly can and not allow Volkov to get in his groove. He will need to take some shots to close in, and the Russian’s enhanced power has transformed him from a fringe contender to a serious challenge for most in the division. It might not be of the one-shot variety, but Volkov has the wherewithal and energy reserves to keep up a steady pace for the 15 minutes that they will be tangling. It might be unfair to claim that Tuivasa, who sports seven strike stoppages in the Octagon, including five clean knockouts, holds just a puncher’s chance here. However, Volkov can nullify and then turn it on when he senses his opponent fades, while the Aussie has never once recorded a finish any later than 6:40 in a fight. Barring Volkov getting clipped in the early going—while this is a heavyweight fight, it is something that has only happened to him once, a decade ago against then-vaunted Vitaly Minakov—he has the tools and the talent to make the local fans quite upset.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

Jack Jenkins (-205)

Melbourne’s Jenkins may yet have the tools to become a contender in the talent-rich UFC featherweight division, but the jury is still out on him. Much of the Australian’s hype is still contingent on his pre-UFC performances, as he made his way through Hex Fight Series and Eternal MMA to get to the big stage. Inside the Octagon, that has changed significantly. Still technically riding a nine-fight winning streak, that should have come to a halt against Jamall Emmers, who outdueled him and should have earned a victory where many live scorers issued 30-27 scorecards. Robbery aside, his other victory over Don Shainis did not overly impress, as he turned in a workman-like win where he put himself in danger one too many times against a man he should have blazed through on paper. Against Jose Mariscal, an outing like that would spell disaster, and the line appears a bit off here.

It might be a surprise to many that “Chepe” Mariscal reached the promotion altogether, as losses in the Legacy Fighting Alliance and Cage Fury Fighting Championships seemed to put his career on ice. He seemed to serve as the talented but reckless regional fighter who ends up losing to future UFC talents: Bryce Mitchell, Joanderson Brito, Steve Garcia and Sean Soriano all topped him and reached the UFC within two fights. No longer the bridesmaid, the Elevation Fight Team trainee notched three straight Round 2 finishes and hopped into a late-notice appearance against Trevor Peek. The wild and crazy guys threw down for 15 minutes, and Mariscal gained the upper hand and managed to out-Peek Peek. A firefight is just where Mariscal wants to be, and Jenkins can get lured into a slugfest as he tries to display himself as the superior striker. If the game plan goes out the window and Jenkins does not try to mix in enough wrestling, it becomes a coinflip fight. The value might be on Mariscal, but it is not enough to recommend him springing the upset, but it is enough to hold off on putting stock in Jenkins.

DOG WILL HUNT

Gabriel Miranda (+140)

As mentioned earlier, this event sees a great deal of heavy favorites, and many feature a local competitor favored well above a foreign adversary. One of the closer lines on the billing brings New Zealand’s Shane Young, on a losing streak, against a quick-strike submission artist in Miranda. Given how these two have fared lately, with Young winning exactly one round on one scorecard in his last three outings, it comes as a surprise that the Kiwi is around -170 right now. On the other side, while Miranda lost his promotional debut, it came against the white-hot Benoit St. Denis, who is rapidly proving he is the real deal. While he is the older combatant and comes to the promotion as a bit of a glass cannon, his weapons are the kind that can give Young fits.

“Sugar Shane” has never been submitted, as the City Kickboxing product has generally fared well enough on the mat but has yet to face a true submission specialist in the Octagon. His wins have come over two competitors in Rolando Dy and Austin Arnett who are long since gone from the promotion, and he appears to be on the roster simply to fill up a slot on a card near his home country. Capable of keeping a high pace—as long as he is the one pressuring—he has shown to be the type of fighter who can shut down when things do not go his way. The onus will be on the New Zealand native to treat the floor like lava and force Miranda into high-volume striking exchanges. If and when he gets put on his back, Young will instantly enter the danger zone, and Miranda can exploit a lapse in judgment in the blink of an eye. Everything the Brazilian brings to the table makes him a primo choice for an underdog to hit the plus money.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:

Israel Adesanya (-700)

Manel Kape (-400)

Justin Tafa-Austen Lane Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-230)

Total Odds: +105

Sneaking just into plus territory, the UFC 293 three-leg parlay will feature two heavily favored main card fighters in what appear to be mismatches, as well as a heavyweight slugfest that should hit the under. The anchor is the widest of the three, as middleweight kingpin Israel Adesanya clocks in at vast -700 odds, with many expecting “The Last Stylebender” to style on Sean Strickland. When it comes to a fight this one-sided on the betting lines, it may behoove a bettor to consider the ways the upset could happen. Can Strickland land the knockout blow on his opponent? Could he outwrestle Adesanya in front of the champion’s home crowd? Will he be able to get inside Adesanya’s head to force him to make a mistake? All of these seem extremely unlikely—to the degree that Adesanya should likely play a role on most of the parlays made, if nothing more than for a multiplier.

The second play is also a hefty favorite, but it is again one that makes total sense to be -400. No longer squaring off against Kai Kara-France, Kape draws a fighter who was intending to compete on Dana White's Contender Series recently. The step up in competition for Felipe dos Santos is so vast, so wide, that some states, like New York, would not allow the matchup to be sanctioned. Even though he is just the No. 10 flyweight currently, “Starboy” possesses exceptionally rare kill-shot power, where he can land one strike and completely change the course of the fight. The Brazilian’s level of competition has not been entirely on the bottom of the barrel, but Kape will give him looks that “Lipe Detona” has not likely encountered on the regional scene. It is a noble step up to allow Kape to still compete on the lineup and skip the DWCS line, but the likelihood of his undefeated record staying intact after this pairing is quite low.

To kick off the accumulator, we shift gears from a moneyline for one expected victor to a measure of time. When they first met, Tafa clocked in around -170 ahead of his fight with Lane, and after 30 seconds, an eye poke ended their encounter. For some reason, that smidge of footage where Lane was the only fighter to land a significant strike actually vaulted Tafa up to a favorite of around -220. The value is no longer on Tafa, given that Lane also sports a 100% finish rate, with just two of 16 outings hitting the under. Tafa himself celebrates six wins, all by knockout, and his pro debut is the only one where he needed more than 2:30 of the second round to put his man away. In this main card heavyweight slobberknocker, it is instead a better play to go after the under and let one smash up the other quickly to start the parlay off violently.