Prime Picks: UFC 318 ‘Holloway vs. Poirier 3’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will pocket its second pay-per-view buyrate in the span of three weeks. The first show was worthy of the admission price, while the second does not look nearly as great on paper. The success of this fight card may hinge on the results of the headliner, with several stories available depending on how it plays out. Just as many of the matchups seem unremarkable. In fact, betting lines on a number of them are the same, and it’s difficult to offer a full-throated endorsement on a -600 moneyline. Join the UFC 318 edition of Prime Picks, which has been chopped down to size for enjoyment while still giving a line and a parlay worth checking out.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Dustin Poirier (+112)

Due likely to recent successes and failures rather than past head-to-head results, Poirier comes into his trilogy match—two wins opposite zero defeats—as a betting underdog to Max Holloway. There is also the oft-discussed intangible about how fighters who openly discuss retirement seem to lose their so-called final bout, but that could be anecdotal and not necessarily an indicator of success or failure. Very few athletes seem to go out on top, and many people believe Poirier when he says this will truly be his final fight. Given the nature of MMA retirements, others expect to see him again when and if Conor McGregor comes a callin’.

Their first matchup can hardly be used to show anything but how far these two have come. The second, however, came six years ago, and still has plenty of review value. Not a great deal has changed for either man, as they both entered their final forms right around then. For historical context, Holloway had recently beaten Jose Aldo twice and then put on a clinic against Brian Ortega, while Poirier racked up a mighty winning streak that included Anthony Pettis, Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez. In their second encounter, Holloway may have landed the higher number of significant strikes by three, but Poirier’s power proved the difference maker. There’s little to indicate that either man has lost a major step since that 2019 bout—after all, Poirier took Islam Makhachev to the wire last year, while “Blessed” has the all-time great knockout of Gaethje in his most recent triumph. It should look a lot like the second bout, which makes Poirier as an underdog a slight headscratcher.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Kevin Holland (-550)

Ryan Spann (-225)

Brunno Ferreira-Jackson McVey Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-275)

Total Odds: +133

The top question involving the welterweight showcase between Holland and Daniel Rodriguez will likely be a rephrased version of the following: “Is Holland putting it all together now?” After some funkiness at 185 pounds, Holland is back to the weight class where he has seen more success in the promotion. Sticking his head in the lion’s mouth that was Gunnar Nelson’s grappling in March showed he can hang on the mat if need be, but his anaconda choke of Vicente Luque was something else. For this parlay alone, a Holland win will suffice. If you’re wishing to track down something a little more reasonable for a single bet, go after “Trailblazer” weaving his long arms around the neck of his opponent for an anaconda or brabo choke. Holland by submission is +230, which may also be worth a stab.

While Spann’s heavyweight debut did not go his way, that could be because Waldo Cortes-Acosta is actually legit and was too much for him at that exact moment. Trying to get his footing and timing down while not cutting any more weight, Spann still seemed out of sorts and constantly beaten to the punch by “Salsa Boy.” The promotion is giving Spann a much-needed breather, feeding him a Lukasz Brzeski who has won once in six UFC outings. It might be a surprise that Spann—above .500 in the promotion even though he has struggled of late—is this low of a betting favorite. Unless something goes wrong, this should be all “Superman,” as the film also rules the box office this weekend.

The first men’s bout on the card is one that should end with the losing participant likely needing smelling salts. A large percentage of Ferreira’s strike-stoppage wins have been of the clean knockout variety, while McVey has a 100% first-round finish rate. This is not the ideal debut for McVey, who draws a fringe contender at 185 pounds who swings with everything he has plus an extra 10%. “The Hulk” is poised to smash as a massive favorite, but given how crazy MMA can be at times, this under adds the possibility that the long, rangy McVey manages to plunk an overeager Ferreira.