Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 213 ‘Kattar vs. Allen’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship holes up in the UFC Apex for a couple weeks after a dramatic trip abroad, and the stakes are substantially lower than those at the pay-per-view offering that preceded it. The only pick’em fight on the card comes between the two ranked competitors present in the excellent main event. Otherwise, a good portion of the matches see a betting favorite at -200 or higher, so moneyline picks may be less valuable than their particular props if you can call your shot. The UFC Fight Night 213 edition of Prime Picks prognosticates a lengthy headliner, a couple of former Legacy Fighting Alliance champions aiming for their first UFC win and a veritable emeritus who deserves a look most of the time.

Calvin Kattar-Arnold Allen Goes the Distance (-130)

This Top 10 featherweight tilt is incredibly close on paper, and it reflects this perfectly in the betting odds—both men currently clock in at even -110 lines. Their skills do not mirror one another, but the means in which they excel can be met or countered by their opponents. Kattar’s boxing is by far his greatest skill, utilizing quick footwork and fast hands to use jabs and set up additional attacks. His second and arguably more notable facet is his ability to take a punch. Never in the UFC has Kattar been knocked down, and he has absorbed tremendous punishment over the years, including the historical beatdown suffered at the hands of Max Holloway in 2021. Luckily for Kattar, Allen has only displayed power in small pockets of competition, while mixing in takedowns to stifle some of the offense that comes his direction. For both men, the finishes have largely fallen off as they moved up the ranks, and all this makes for a contest that reaches the final bell.

Few fighters have outstruck Allen since he joined the roster in 2015, and no foe has managed to beat him or even really scare him as he slowly worked his way through the featherweight division. Allen has been his own worst enemy, with a slow pace of around one fight a year, as he would have otherwise already reached the pinnacle of the division had he stayed active and kept winning. The main event will be a new obstacle for “Almighty Arnold” to overcome, as he has never before competed beyond Round 3 and has certainly not encountered a man standing across the cage from him who regularly puts up high numbers. Allen will be hard pressed to keep the building Kattar at bay, having never before absorbed 50 significant strikes or more inside the Octagon.

If Allen wants to keep Kattar honest, using wrestling as a safety valve should the New England Cartel product get the better of him with his hands, he will not likely succeed just charging in hunting for entries or relying on sheer muscle to scoop him off the ground. While many have tried, few have succeeded in grounding Kattar, and even the wily Zabit Magomedsharipov could not keep him on the mat for long. It would behoove Allen to keep trying, if nothing more than to slow some of the volume aimed largely at his face. Kattar will maintain the height and reach advantages, with the latter well in his favor for establishing and keeping his jab going constantly. At times, “The Boston Finisher” can betray that nickname by not getting out of first gear, with nothing more than accurate jabs, even though a punishing follow-up cross is wide open. This could be attributed to a risk-averse strategy for Kattar, who is not afraid to get into a firefight but can sometimes be hesitant to really open up with his hands. The two featherweights will have 25 minutes to ply their trade, and there could be momentum swings, especially if Allen stings Kattar with a straight left hand—a la the Dan Hooker encounter—and has the Boston native on the ropes. It should be quite an entertaining battle that will rage on to the bitter end.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Wins Inside Distance (-115)

The UFC loves billing low-stakes heavyweight slugfests in the “featured fight” slot on Fight Night main cards, largely under the expectation that the big men will produce a violent end and get fans pumped up for the co-main and headlining affairs to follow. This obligatory heavyweight slobberknocker comes between a recent Dana White’s Contender Series signee in Cortes-Acosta and struggling 2020 pickup Jared Vanderaa. While Cortes-Acosta is undefeated at 7-0 with five finishes to his credit, Vanderaa’s own 83% stoppage rate is hampered by the fact that he is a mere 1-5 since debuting in the Octagon in 2021. With respect to “Kryptonite,” outworking Tony Lopez over five rounds is not the statement performance to earn a spot in the big leagues it once was. Cortes-Acosta has all the momentum on his side, and he draws an opponent who will stand in his face and not even consider a level change until someone goes down.

Cortes-Acosta, a former LFA champion, put on arguably his most impressive performance not with his contract-earning knockout of Danilo Suzart in August but by outlasting then-unbeaten Thomas Petersen and putting him away late in the third round. This proved he can take everything a tough foe dishes out and give it back in spades, and it also crossed off any concerns that might have developed about his energy management. While a pick for the favored Cortes-Acosta by knockout at +115 might seem a little more enticing by putting the play into plus-money territory, it disallows the possibility for a club-and-sub performance that could very possibly come. Much of Vanderaa’s success has come courtesy of sheer size, coupled with the ability that he, too, can push the pace despite topping the scales right around the heavyweight limit. Cortes-Acosta is just as large and will meet him in the center of the cage for a rousing game of Rock ’Em Sock ’Em Robots for as long as they can keep their wits about them. Based on track records and success against their respective levels of competition, Cortes-Acosta has what it takes to demolish “The Mountain” and put the division on notice.

Joshua Fremd (-152)

While Fremd clocks in about the same age as opponent Tresean Gore, his experience is far more substantial and immediately sways the contest heavily in his favor. Fremd, a former LFA title challenger, has faced off against more established names already and learned from both his wins and losses. Savvier strikers like Gregory Rodrigues have gotten the better of him, while grapplers at the level of Anthony Hernandez have shut him down, as well. Against Gore, Fremd faces a man who is dangerous early and quite powerful but full of defensive lapses. Gore could have benefited from far more seasoning on the regional circuit. Fremd did this by competing five times with the feeder league LFA, as well as other organizations like the Pinnacle Fighting Championships and the Fighting Alliance Championship, to hone his skills. Fremd has encountered the kinds of dangers that Gore presents, and he has largely dealt with them, beyond a walk-off knockout loss to the aforementioned “Robocop.”

“Mr. Vicious” is especially vicious early, turning his hips into leg kicks and throwing everything he has into his power punches. This is a blessing and a curse for “The Ultimate Fighter 29” finalist, as his cardio can fade as the match progresses; and suddenly, his looping right hand does not have the same pop or a head kick slows to a degree that it can be easily blocked or dodged. Gore’s best chance at victory will be to stun Fremd in a striking exchange. Every minute that ticks off the clock should sway any advantage in the latter’s favor. This can be considered doubly so if Fremd is able to take down the compact Gore. Fighting smart by sapping Gore’s gas tank, forcing the clinch and making him defend takedown attempts will all give Fremd the upper hand to tire out the less-experienced Georgian. As Fremd is a moderate favorite, a moneyline option on him is worthwhile without having to pick whether he can put Gore away or ride out a decision.

Andrei Arlovski (+215)

After being written off countless times with multiple claims that his chin was completely shot, Arlovski is on a four-fight winning streak. His last few outings were closer than his supporters and bettors would prefer and include a lucky split call over Jake Collier that no scoring media member thought he won. Even so, at the age of 43 and with a gas tank that tends to abandon him before the second bell rings, the wheels can come off at any time. He takes on a heavy hitter in former light heavyweight Marcos Rogerio de Lima; the old Arlovski would have capitalized on the Brazilian’s poor ground game in an instant. Rogerio de Lima would prefer to maintain a straight kickboxing match, and Arlovski may oblige him and allow himself to get kicked at range. Arlovski can pick up two of three rounds thanks to his own slow, steady boxing approach, as he avoids the brunt of the haymakers that come his way.

There exists every possibility that “Pezao” plunks Arlovski coming in and puts the Belarusian down in a hurry. Fourteen of his 16 career finishes have come in the opening frame, and a 2021 beatdown of Ben Rothwell could be replicated if Arlovski stands still or simply leans back to dodge strikes coming his way. In fact, the Rothwell victory ended a UFC-record streak of alternating wins and losses for Rogerio de Lima, and he started it again by losing to Blagoy Ivanov in May, losing a decision in an Arlovskian-style boxing and clinch-heavy match. Arlovski’s beard has held together against some righteous blows lately, as it has been nearly three years since his chin was truly checked courtesy of a face-planting left hook from Jairzinho Rozenstruik. This happened when Arlovski was charging like Bald Bull from “Punch Out,” and he has not even been knocked down since. It could turn into a grueling heavyweight contest where the danger of a knockout evaporates within the first two minutes, but Arlovski still displays the chops to slow down the rampaging ex-205er and outfox him on his way to an upset by decision.