Prime Picks: UFC Seattle ‘Cejudo vs. Song’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday trundles into Seattle with an event drastically different than it initially intended. Over a half dozen matchups shifted for various reasons, with this decently constructed UFC Fight Night affair losing a great deal of steam thanks to losses on the billing. With a load of late replacements come wacky betting lines, like a 7-0 competitor receiving -1300 odds in his favor. Join the UFC Seattle edition of Prime Picks, as we traverse treacherous terrain in search of bargains and opportunity.

Henry Cejudo-Yadong Song Goes to Decision (-175)

If one had to pick an expected victor in this marquee match, it’s hard to shy away from the young, hungry fighter from China to get the job done. Cejudo already had one foot out the door when he moved up to 135 pounds, and an awkward retirement and a lot of posturing resulted in his dragging himself back into the deep end of the pool. While he kept it close against Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili showed an additional gear that Cejudo no longer possessed. This could rear its ugly head when he gets punched in the face by Song—a flawed but powerful up-and-comer who sometimes likes to sit in the pocket and trade. On paper, this should be one where Cejudo tries to grapple early and often, either using it to set up strikes or to put his foe on his back. Whether it gets caught up in the stalls thanks to solid takedown defense or horizontal thanks to spotty takedown defense, the resulting melee might not be ultra-fast-paced and should take a while to determine a winner.

Even though the Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling has that skill in his back pocket, Cejudo has not needed to overly rely on it in years. On just one occasion has he put a foe on his back more than three times in a UFC bout, smartly doing so to defuse to so-called “one-punch power” of Chris Cariaso. Getting past the fighter who is similarly a youngster but also holds the same high-level experience—Song has 14 UFC bouts, as does Cejudo—means that he will likely have to take the Chinese standout and his active striking out of the equation. If he can rev up that wrestling engine and steal rounds with one single takedown and a lot of control time, Cejudo can not only pull it off but peel time off the clock. As long as they hear the final bell, the victor is immaterial.

Brendan Allen (+270)

Allen’s rematch with Anthony Hernandez is a meaningful enough contest that it could serve as the main attraction to any UFC Fight Night lineup. But for Cejudo in the top spot, this surefire all-action middleweight scrap is one that should sit in the poster and receive a five-round allocation. The two first tangled for the Legacy Fighting Alliance strap in 2018, with the victory for Hernandez one that springboarded him into UFC following a win and failed drug test on Dana White’s Contender Series. Allen had to rack up three more victories in the LFA and claim the throne to get a call-up the following year for the Contender Series. Now, they meet once again. Even with the momentum behind “Fluffy” and the fact that Hernandez already holds a win over Allen, the line between these two should be significantly closer.

The major player in this fight should be Allen’s takedown defense. Hernandez is not remotely shy about modeling his game plan for lather-rinse-repeat takedowns, forcing scrambles in hopes of taking the back. Fortunately for fight fans, Allen would like nothing more than to play on the ground; this is a fighter who submitted Paul Craig and also laughed off the numerous ground efforts from Jacob Malkoun to sneak out a win. There’s a reason Hernandez is two takedowns shy of eclipsing the all-time middleweight record held currently by Chris Weidman, and it’s entirely possible he reaches or eclipses that total by night’s end. He will have to do so against a sharp opportunist who is dangerous in all areas of the fight, not simply when it hits the mat. Hernandez may very well pull off the win, but this rematch reads as one far closer than the odds indicate.

Rob Font (+133)

Every year or so, Boston’s Font reminds fans and prognosticators that y’all musta forgot about his talent. The technical boxer with extremely impressive resilience and fluidity does not go down no matter how hard the man across from him swings. The ceiling is undoubtedly present for the 37-year-old, with four losses in recent outings to the elite echelon of the 135-pound division keeping him away from any championship conversations. When listing the names of the men to beat him recently, there’s no weak link among them, no unexpected disappointing loss where Font dropped the ball. A resurgent Jose Aldo, Marlon Vera on his way to gold, perennial contender Cory Sandhagen and former champ Deiveson Figueiredo make up a veritable murderer’s row of opposition. When taking a step down to get his bearings, Font can shine, be it against Cody Garbrandt, Adrian Yanez or Kyler Phillips. Jean Matsumoto presents some interesting stylistic questions and possesses a gaudy 16-0 record, but Font is a perfect trap fight for this occasion.

It is not simply a direct matching that makes Font a live dog in this main card affair. Matsumoto is stepping up to replace Dominick Cruz on exceptionally short notice, although his last appearance came in October, so there is no real cage corrosion setting in. Font will be the taller, longer man and 12 years the elder, but what comes with that age is a vast amount of unteachable knowledge only learned through ample cage time. Font at this stage of his career has seen the kitchen sink thrown at him and then some, and his chin has never completely betrayed him, even as Aldo and Vera floored him a combined five times. But for a dry guillotine choke from Pedro Munhoz years ago, Font has never been put away in the cage. The youthfully exuberant Brazilian may try, but given Matsumoto’s defensive lapses and propensity to get hit more often than he lands, it could be a field day for the well-traveled vet and an upset to watch.

Alonzo Menifield Wins Inside Distance (-140)

There may be fewer better examples on the active roster of a “live by the sword, die by the sword” athlete than Menifield. That theme actually extends to several members of the 205-pound division, as perhaps the overall skill in the weight class allows for some less polished tacticians to succeed thanks to sheer ferocity. Flying straight at an opponent, hands down and chin up, should be a recipe for disaster, and it has been for a few of Menifield’s recent excursions. “Atomic Alonzo” is the perfect nickname for a fighter who throws bombs without regard to his own safety or well-being, and he remains a fringe contender because of this. More clinical competitors with a distinct advantage in one area or another may be able to get one over on Menifield, but this pairing against newcomer Julius Walker—who has never gone beyond 6:38 of a fight on his own ledger—is not that. Two muscle-bound 205ers will clash and one will fall, likely before long, and Menifield has the chops to make sure it will be Walker.

Menifield has a very chin-reliant style, as he will voluntarily place himself on the gunnery range and take fire so he can give back something heavier. With an 87% finish rate—and three knockout losses on the other side—most of his fights do not involve the judges, and for good reason. The stoppages that litter his win column largely have come in the opening frame or at latest a couple minutes into the second stanza. There are a number of factors that play into why X or Y fighter should take it, such as Walker being 12 years younger with far less tread on his tired or Menifield’s far superior experience, never having competed in any stage smaller than Resurrection Fighting Alliance. In terms of brass tacks, Menifield has run through more battle-tested names than the relative neophyte who calls himself “Juice Box,” and as long as he does not walk face-first into something ugly within the first two minutes, he should be able to get it done, either by mixing in his underrated explosive wrestling or slugging away until Walker falls down.