Smartest Guy at the Bar: UFC 196 Edition

Sin City and spectacle are the oldest of friends. The Smartest Guy at the Bar has squinted through many Las Vegas spectacles, most of them transpiring inside the Octagon. Conor McGregor has elevated the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s business with his last two appearances in the company’s Nevada backyard. The “Notorious” one has talked and talked some more through his UFC career and needed just 13 seconds to knock out Jose Aldo and complete his ascent to the featherweight championship throne in December. Because of that unparalleled coronation and his mic skills, McGregor’s profile has jumped to such heights that former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar told MMAFighting.com that “UFC” stands for “Ultimate Fighting Conor.” Not to correct “The Answer,” but the Irishman has actually dubbed it McGregor Promotions. Edgar was of course jabbing at the UFC lavishing McGregor with champagne and caviar wherever his one-man money train rolls. McGregor’s success appears to run parallel to the UFC’s because he treats his persona like Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous, from 145 pounds to 155 pounds and all the way up to the welterweight division. The UFC featherweight champion moves up 25 pounds to headline UFC 196 opposite Nate Diaz on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. Prizefights are about the money up for grabs and surviving to live another day. McGregor-Diaz is nothing more, nothing less. However, since both men are known as polarizing personalities, it shapes up to be a magnet fight for 2016.

HOW WE GOT HERE: The UFC and its card-subject-to-change disclaimer are getting cozy early in 2016. UFC 196 was originally intended to be UFC 197. The first UFC 196 was a February card headlined by heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum’s rematch against Cain Velasquez. When Velasquez and then Werdum turned up hurt, the card was repurposed for Fox Sports 1, and the UFC tried to leave the injury woes behind with the big McGregor show ahead. McGregor had his sights set on becoming the UFC’s first simultaneous two-division champion versus lightweight kingpin Rafael dos Anjos. However, the Brazilian broke his foot, postponing their champion-versus-champion showdown and shelving McGregor’s chance to seize the 155-pound title. A 24-hour panic later, Diaz was pegged to tackle McGregor at 170 pounds ... In the co-main event, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm defends her title against former Strikeforce champ Miesha Tate. Following a second loss to Ronda Rousey, Tate plugged away at a four-fight winning streak thought to be enough to earn a third fight with the “Rowdy” judoka. Instead, the UFC tabbed undefeated Holm, just two decisions into her UFC tenure, to challenge Rousey. The rest is history. “The Preacher’s Daughter” knocked out Rousey with a left high kick witnessed by a record-breaking UFC audience of 56,000-plus fans in Melbourne, Australia. Dethroning Rousey was a milestone for women’s MMA and the sport overall; it was desired by Tate and achieved by Holm. Tate now has designs on upsetting Holm in her own landmark moment.

BOXING MODEL DISPLAY: McGregor has tilted the sport in his favor enough to justifiably call whatever event on which he appears The Conor McGregor Show. If opponents drop out, like they have twice in the last nine months, there is an immediate sigh, as the world waits to find out whether McGregor is willing to allow a last-minute substitute to enter his big-ticket kingdom. The 27-year-old relishes his benevolence, demonstrating his willingness to keep it all rolling towards an event that delivers center stage to him. It turns out McGregor’s preferred weight class is “money weight,” as he tries to prove he can be the top draw across three divisions. The champion-versus-champion match with dos Anjos may be off the table for McGregor, but Diaz’s notoriety may actually elevate intrigue for his latest bout without the historical relevance dos Anjos offered. Diaz was quick to remind everyone that he has put on his own shows during his nine years in the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Despite the fact that Diaz’s pairing with Benson Henderson peaked with 5.7 million viewers on Fox in December 2012, UFC President Dana White had previously buried the Stockton, California, native, claiming he was “not a needle mover.” Diaz was last seen bleeping his way through a post-fight interview on Dec. 19, when he called out McGregor and claimed he was the real money fight challenger. Based on how everything transpired, he may be on to something. Diaz boasted at the pre-fight press conference that the UFC offered him a “[expletive] load of money” for his services and then added, “I want more of that s---.” Rarely is there this much talent combined with genuine ability to galvanize fans on the microphone present in one fight. The short-notice situation is tailor-made for McGregor to pick opponents. That is more in line with how boxing matches come together than with the UFC’s crack-the-whip approach. Sizable paydays can be hard to come by if one’s last name is not McGregor, so a short-notice replacement is always one late-night conversation away from being in the cage with him. It is plain to see that McGregor Promotions is already in effect if he is pocketing such significant paydays against opponents coming in on less than two weeks’ notice. Lightweight contender Eddie Alvarez told Sirius XM Fight Club that no one other than Diaz was considered for UFC 196: “The UFC goes to Conor on their hands and knees and says, ‘Please don’t pull out of this fight. We’ll give you whoever you want, and we’ll pay for him.’” Alvarez compared the process to a lion staring at sheep wondering which one was most vulnerable. “He gets his pick of the litter, the guy he thinks stylistically he matches up the best with,” the former Bellator MMA champion said. McGregor has become such a drawing card that it is reasonable to assume the UFC would move a pay-per-view to Fox Sports 1 or cancel it altogether if he withdraw from a fight so close to the night in question. That is with all due respect to the championship tilt between Holm and Tate. McGregor tops off events in a way that reeks of co-promotion centered on him, and he is in the driver’s seat if he remains undefeated in the UFC.

THE RIGHT STUFF: What is compelling about Diaz’s entry into the fray is that his accurate, long-haul boxing style has the potential to derail McGregor’s momentum. His skills are backed by elite endurance, although his cardio can be expected to be below its usual standard because of the short-notice nature of the fight. Nonetheless, his success has come from luring opponents into trying to outbox him at his pace and range; if Diaz does so to McGregor, it will be because the Irishman overplayed his hand in his position of power. McGregor has the shortest fight times for all UFC featherweights and has only gone the distance once -- in a 15-minute battle with Max Holloway -- in seven Octagon appearances. How he fares against someone experienced at 170 pounds and in fighting long stretches without a reach advantage for the first time in his UFC career poses relevant questions. Also, Diaz’s 11 career submission wins make him one of the most prolific ground finishers to ever compete in the UFC. That is his decided advantage against McGregor, though when considering the egos involved, one can reason this fight will remain standing.

HOLM’S REAL ESTATE: Holm’s women’s bantamweight title defense against Tate represents the bridge between the champion and the biggest payday of her career -- a rematch with Rousey. Tate is a streaking veteran eager to add the one trophy that has eluded her: a UFC championship. If she upsets Holm, her biggest fight purses also lay ahead. It falls on Holm, a licensed realtor in New Mexico, to close the deal on a Rousey rematch by staving off Tate. Theirs is the best women’s bantamweight fight available without Rousey’s name value involved.

AWARDS WATCH: The main event between McGregor and Diaz, however long it lasts, seems a lock for “Fight of the Night.” Meanwhile, Holm’s “Performance of the Night” bonus is just a few reverse-wrestling exchanges away. Finally, Tom Lawlor’s veteran tricks can result in a post-fight bonus against Corey Anderson.

Danny Acosta is a SiriusXM Rush (Channel 93) host and contributor. His writing has been featured on Sherdog.com for nearly a decade. Find him on Twitter and Instagram @acostaislegend.