The Bottom Line: Inviting Chaos

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A division rarely has more order than when there is a dominant champion, and that was certainly the case with Kamaru Usman’s welterweight division. You know which opponents the champion has already beaten and are unlikely to receive another title shot in the near term, absent a significant run of wins over the other top contenders. You also know which rising challengers to follow because there aren’t that many of them, and how those fighters do is key to what’s coming next for the champion. It’s easy to work through.

Of course, when that champion falls, chaos typically ensues. Challengers who were previously blocked from a title shot are no longer blocked. The new champion has rivals who are more likely to be put into a title fight. Fans start thinking about which contenders pose the greatest stylistic challenges to the champion. It’s a fun and uncertain time. That was certainly the case in London after Leon Edwards retained the Ultimate Fighting Championship welterweight title against Usman on Saturday in the UFC 286 main event. Fans, media and even Edwards himself seemed confused about what’s to come next.

UFC President Dana White’s declaration that Colby Covington will get the next title shot was generally not well received. Covington is 2-2 in his last four fights, hasn’t fought frequently and isn’t well liked by many. That’s not to say there’s no sense in the idea. Covington’s only two losses in the last seven years were to a dominant champion, and he gave Usman some of the toughest challenges of his career. He’s also a star, even if he hasn’t proven to be an upper-echelon drawing card. White likes him, and there might have been promises made in Covington agreeing to be the backup fighter for the main event at UFC 286. As the division goes from order to chaos, it’s also fitting that “Chaos” would be next up for a title shot.

What Edwards didn’t understand, and with good reason, is why White was in such a hurry to proclaim Covington the next challenger before Jorge Masvidal fights Gilbert Burns in Miami in a couple weeks. Covington is clearly more deserving of a title shot than Masvidal, having a better recent record and having beaten Masvidal head-to-head. However, neither man has done much to earn a title shot recently, and if Masvidal beats Burns, they would both be coming off a one fight winning streak. That’s relevant because “Gamebred” would likely be a much bigger fight on pay-per-view than Covington given he’s a bigger star to begin with, and there’s the long and well-known back history between Edwards and Masvidal.

A choice between Masvidal—if he beats Burns—and Covington would be heavily based on business considerations. If instead the UFC turned to recent performance, there is a whole other set of challengers. The three strongest are likely Belal Muhammad (8-0 in his last 9 UFC bouts and 12-1 in his last 13), Khamzat Chimaev (12-0, 11 finishes) and Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0, 17 finishes). It’s an excellent crop, which will likely lead to frustration in some circles if all are bypassed for an also-ran star.

Of the three, each has pros and cons. Chimaev is likely disqualified because of his bad weight miss last time out, but he’s also the one with the most intrigue. Given how many fights the UFC puts on, it’s difficult to develop an aura in six bouts through sheer dominant performance, but that’s precisely what Chimaev has done. Fans are clamoring to see him against the best, and he would almost certainly draw better than Muhammad or Rakhmonov.

Muhammad has arguably the most impressive recent resume of the group with consecutive wins over Sean Brady, Vicente Luque, Stephen Thompson and Demian Maia. That’s a stellar list with varied styles to deal with. What works against Muhammad is he isn’t a wrecking machine like Chimaev or Rakhmonov. He’s won mostly by decision, and while he is by no means a dull fighter nor an unengaging personality, he stands out as a challenger more because of the feeling he has earned it than because fans just can’t wait to see him fight for the title.

That leaves Rakhmonov, who has passed every test in dominant fashion. Like Chimaev, he has a fearsome offensive style but he is not as well-known. His last fight was the first time he was featured prominently on a major show, so many fans are likely still getting familiar with him. He is also a black hole of charisma, although sometimes there can end up being a charm in that. Rakhmonov is likely at least one fight away from a potential title shot, but it could end up being only that one depending on who he is matched with next.

The uncertainty as to what comes next for the division is fun after so many years of stability. Of course, it’s also likely going to lead to some disappointed fans no matter which matchups end up getting made. With so many options, everyone has their favorites and only one fighter can challenge at a time. The jockeying has already begun.