The Bottom Line: The Underlying Vulnerability of ‘Cyborg’

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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To say Cristiane Justino is a prohibitive favorite in the main event of UFC 222 this Saturday is a distinct understatement. Justino enters her fight against Yana Kunitskaya as a 15-to-1 to 18-to-1 favorite in most sportsbooks. Those just aren’t odds you see very often in the sport of MMA. To put it into perspective, nobody else on the card is so much as a 4-to-1 underdog. No fighter reached that 4-to-1 level on UFC 220 or UFC 221, either. “Cyborg” is orders of magnitude more favored than anybody else on those cards.

While the odds on Justino are out of line with everything else at UFC 222, they’re far from an anomaly for Justino herself. Since decisively defeating Gina Carano in 2009 in what was to that point the most important fight in women’s MMA history, Justino has been a 9-to-1 or greater favorite on 10 different occasions. She is almost always expected to dominate, and to this point, she has come through on that front time and time again.

This level of confidence in Justino arises from a variety of factors. She is naturally bigger than pretty much all of her opponents, and that strength plays in her favor. Her opponents are for the most part better suited at a lower weight class. In addition, there just isn’t a lot of depth in her division, so she is forced to compete against a lower level of competition than most dominant champions. However, the confidence in Justino goes well beyond just the quality of her opponents.

Over the course of a decade-plus of dominance, Justino has developed an aura of invincibility. Fans tune into her MMA fights expecting she will destroy her opponent every time. This has happened plenty of times over MMA history. As fighters embark on long winning streaks, fans take their dominance for granted. Indications that a fighter may be declining are brushed aside until reality strikes suddenly and dramatically.

This may be occurring right now with Justino. Confidence in her prospects is out of line with the norm in an unpredictable sport. MMA dominance tends to last shorter than dominance in other sports. Turnover is constant, and few fighters remain on top for long. This should be a signal to never grow too confident in even the best fighters, but in fact, the opposite trend often develops. Long runs at the top are so rare that fighters in that position are viewed as so unique that the rules don’t apply to them.

Beyond broader trends that apply to all fighters, there is good reason to view “Cyborg” with caution right now. She has been undefeated in MMA competition since 2005. That’s a lot of mileage on a body just in sparring and training over the years, recognizing that she hasn’t taken great punishment in fights. When Justino last lost, Pride Fighting Championships was still going strong, Evan Tanner was the UFC middleweight champion and Rose Namajunas was in junior high school.

Fighters just don’t tend to remain unbeaten for anywhere near as long as Justino already has. Demetrious Johnson’s long present unbeaten streak has lasted over six years. Anderson Silva made it six years himself. Fedor Emelianenko and Jose Aldo lasted 10 years. Georges St. Pierre has, as well, including his retirement. Justino is at 12 and counting. There are good reasons that streaks don’t last that long. There’s tremendous wear and tear on the body, not to mention the psychological pressure about which GSP has articulately spoken.

As time goes on, opponents also can clue in on vulnerabilities and exploit where other fighters have found openings. Fabricio Werdum counted on Emelianenko diving into his guard just like the Russian great once dove into Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira’s. Silva’s brutal knockout at the hands of Chris Weidman had faint echoes of the way he weaved in and out against Forrest Griffin. Holly Holm was ready for the charges that Ronda Rousey had used with success against so many past opponents. Tendencies that initially look like strengths can often evolve into weaknesses.

In Justino’s case, there’s also the matter of drug testing. “Cyborg” failed a test for PEDs in the past and rumors have circled her throughout her career because of the way she looks physically. In the Ultimate Fighting Championship, drug testing is much more stringent than it has been in Justino’s previous MMA homes. It’s not unfair to wonder whether that might affect her preparation over time.

This is also not an entirely theoretical discussion. Justino’s prodigious power hasn’t looked quite as devastating in recent fights. Tonya Evinger was able to handle those strikes better than most, and Holm lasted to a five-round decision when no opponent had made it to a three-round decision with Justino in over nine years. Speed declines before power, and it’s not common to see power declines in a fighter at age 32. Those recent performances could be outliers, but they also could be early signals of a new trend. It goes without saying that the longer opponents are able to hang in with Justino, the more opportunities they have to pull off something.

All of this is not to say Saturday is clearly going to be Kunitskaya’s night. However, it may not be very long at all before odds suggesting Justino is four times more likely to win than any other fighter on a card don’t look like realistic appraisals of the respective probabilities. If that happens, the “Cyborg” era will not have been the first to end with irrational outside confidence.

Todd Martin has written about mixed martial arts since 2002 for a variety of outlets, including CBSSports.com, SI.com, ESPN.com, the Los Angeles Times, MMApayout.com, Fight Magazine and Fighting Spirit Magazine. He has appeared on a number of radio stations, including ESPN affiliates in New York and Washington, D.C., and HDNet’s “Inside MMA” television show. In addition to his work at Sherdog.com, he does a weekly podcast with Wade Keller at PWTorch.com and blogs regularly at LaTimes.com. Todd received his BA from Vassar College in 2003 and JD from UCLA School of Law in 2007 and is a licensed attorney. He has covered UFC, Pride, Bellator, Affliction, IFL, WFA, Strikeforce, WEC and K-1 live events. He believes deeply in the power of MMA to heal the world and bring happiness to all of its people.