UFC 294 Beforemath: Legacy on the Line for Makhachev and Volkanovski

Islam Makhachev-Alexander Volkanovski 1 was the highest level matchup in UFC history, the first time the top two pound-for-pound fighters fought each other. UFC 294 now features a rematch of that fight.

In today’s Beforemath column, we look at the first fight and answer some key questions for both fighters. Can Volkanovski close the gap and fix mistakes made from the first fight? How does Makhachev deal with Volkanovski’s blitzing into the pocket? Today’s Beforemath will be our most in depth to date. Brace yourselves…

Makhachev: Punish the Blitz

Volkanovski’s best moments of the first fight came when he shifted stances in and landed big shots over the top. Makhachev struggled with the speed-as much as Makhachev struggles with anything, which is generally not much. When Volkanovski got in the pocket, Makhachev was hit and he made adjustments to do the punishing himself.

At UFC 294, doing more of this will benefit him in the long run and remove Volkanovski’s best weapon, forcing him to rely on others that he’s not as effective with and that Makhachev is more effective in countering. Let’s look at some of the tools used by Makhachev in the first fight that we can expect more of on Saturday.

Makhachev’s best moment of fight one was in the second round when he caught Volkanovski with a left cross on the stance switch in. Here’s how he did it.

Makhachev is the southpaw and doesn’t switch. But Volkanovski does and in this exchange (1) he starts in orthodox. (2) Volkanovski grabs the lead hand of Makhachev to pull down and create an opening for a right hand. (3) Makhachev takes a slight step back and then plants followed by a (4) left cross that drops Volkanovski to a knee.

In fact, most of Makhachev’s success on the feet come off of not conceding ground and banging out in the pocket. Let’s take the next few sections to see the ways in which Makhachev did just this.

At a point in Round 3, Volkanovski looked to step to the outside of Makhachev’s lead leg and utilize the outside foot advantage. (1) To do this against a southpaw, Volkanovski started out in orthodox. To get in he would (2) throw the jab and step down the leg on the outside as deep as possible. Makhachev countered with (3) an elbow and caused Volkanovski to exit the pocket.

The knee was a key deterrent for Makhachev in the first fight and will be again in the rematch. With Volkanovski being the shorter fighter, he routinely dipped under punches into the pocket. This is prime for a knee and Makhachev worked this out. Round five shows (1) Volkanovski in orthodox looking to step into the pocket on the switch to southpaw. (2) On the dip, Makhachev lands the knee that stuns Volkanovski for a moment.

Building off that knee, Makhachev often had to deal with a very mobile opponent. Volkanovski would often hop in and out of the pocket at an angle, causing Makhachev to miss on his striking. Grabbing your opponent is something that can really help in this situation.

Makhachev did this a few times as well and had success with making Volkanovski fighting him off while Makhachev landed knees. As Volkanovski does, he starts to look for the switch by (1) starting in orthodox and stepping (2) into a southpaw stance. Makhachev answers by (3) grabbing the plum. Notice (4) Volkanovski trying to exit at an angle. Makhachev manages to hold on and (5) land the knee.

Another way for Makhachev to deal with the blitz is to simply intercept with the teep. While Volkanovski has punished the teep in the past with Yair Rodriguez, Makhachev is long enough to null that speed with distance.

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Makhachev also has the biggest trump card of all: his wrestling pedigree.

Timing the Step-In:A Grappling Perspective

It wouldn’t be Makhachev if we didn’t talk grappling. It’s really his bread and butter despite the good striking. In fact, Makhachev fights in a way that forces his opponents to deal with his style instead of melding what everyone does. This has what made him so effective.

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Makhachev will often use the blitz from Volkanovski to get in on the hips and to the ground. There he applies insane top pressure and smashes people into submission-sometimes literally-from half guard.

(1) Volkanovski will start out by looking for the blitz in orthodox, wanting to step in on the switch again. (2) as he steps in, Makhachev ducks under and (3) gets to the hips of Volkanovski. Unable to stop him, (4) Makhachev completes the takedown.

The wall walk is one of the ways fighters look to get up from grappling sequences. Makhachev has an answer for that as well.

In Round 1, (1) Makhachev has Volkanovski down and the left leg reaped from behind. Volkanovski is plastered to the fence and is looking to use it to get up. Makhachev intends on taking the fence away. (2) As Volkanovski posts on the reaped leg, Makhachev will (3) squeeze his right knee behind Volkanovski. This allows him to wedge himself between the fence and Volkanovski. (4) Makhachev completes the transition by putting his other hook in.

Controlling Volkanovski on the ground will be paramount. Allowing Volkanovski to create scrambles and sweep like he did in the first fight will only result in Makhachev working harder to keep Volkanovski down. His attempts need to be slow, sure and deliberate. With Volkanovski coming in on short notice, Makhachev can run away with this fight as it goes on if he can tire the ill prepared Volkanovski out.

Volkanovski: Time to be great

A note about the fight. With Volkanovski taking this fight on short notice, conditioning and preparation will be a huge X-factor. That’s not something we can quantify and will be discussing this fight from the standpoint of a full camp.

Much of what Volkanovski did in the first fight was great. He switched stances and hurt Makhachev at several points in the fight. He did not allow Makhachev to control the grappling and refused position. This is what made the fight so intriguing. Knowing how Volkanovski is with adjustments in rematches (see Volkanovski-Max Holloway 2 and 3) it will be these adjustments that get Volkanovski over the hump and into champ-champ territory.

While the switch was useful for Volkanovski in the first fight, he often relied on it too much and was countered, as was seen in our previous sections on Makhachev. Instead, I want to see Volkanovski mix things up by stepping to the outside lead leg from orthodox with the switch to southpaw thrown in at other times. Keeping Makhachev guessing will be critical if Volkanovski wants to win the fight on Saturday.

Mixing up high and down low in tandem with the decision to switch will be the name of the game. Early in Round 1, Volkanovski set this expectation and didn’t use it as much. He will (1) step in on the jab and slip to the outside of Makhachev’s counter. Once in and out the way of the jab, (2) Volkanovski lands a beautiful right cross to the body and (3) comes up top with the right.

I want to point out that the body work will be important for Volkanovski. If he’s not in fighting shape, something entirely different than being in shape, he risks getting outrun and Makhachev coming on strong later in the fight as he fades. Volkanovski will want to hit the body early and hard with punches. In the first fight, he waited a bit too long and the result was that Makhachev really faded in Round 5 the most notably. Slowing Makhachev down and taking over, or even keeping him within the same cardio capabilities if he’s not in shape, will make or break the fight.

For Volkanovski to ignore the switch altogether would be foolish, but he can use it more creatively. In the frame above, we see (1) Volkanovski in orthodox and (2) raises his guard to show that he’s ready to trade as he steps to southpaw. Makhachev sees this as an oncoming attack up high and covers up. This opens up the midsection, which is a lead (3) right hook for Volkanovski.

In this exchange, Volkanovski was countered with a left hook. It will be important that he exits on an angle when going to the body, specifically away from the left. He needs to minimize damage and circling away is the tried and true method of this.

When Volkanovski can mix up where he’s punching, when he’s switching, and how fast, he will open up opportunities like he found in the first round when he staggered Makhachev. The switch is slick and smooth when not abused. Volkanovski (1) starts in orthodox, (2) fights for the hand and (3) steps through to southpaw. Reaching for the hand and controlling it allows Volkanovski to keep an eye on only the left of Makhachev instead of having to see two hands at once. Volkanovski throws the lead right and comes behind it with (4) a left cross and Makhachev is caught off balance.

Again, mixing things up here will be important too. Ending on the lead hook from the switch or the cross can make Makhachev have to think of one more thing. Overloading your opponents with information is a good way to paralyze them. Paralysis by analysis.

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It doesn’t only have to be punches that Volkanovski ends combinations on. Kicks are something he’s fantastic at and he largely avoided them because of the wrestling threat presented by Makhachev. Understandable.

This time, Volkanovski doesn’t shift. The Aussie will (1) start out in orthodox, feinting the switch. He comes behind with (2) the right overhand on the step in and (3) an orthodox jab behind. As Makhachev backs up, Volkanovski will (4) fire an outside low kick at an angle. Makhachev can’t shoot a well prepared takedown on the back foot and Volkanovski knows it. Adding in about 50% kicks from his 12 of 14 would do the trick.

In the first fight, Volkanovski’s striking was great. But what really stood out was his grappling and how he, a smaller fighter, negated the Dagestani pressure and mounted an attack of his own.

Offensive and Defensive Grappling

Volkanovski not only managed to defend Makhachev’s takedowns, but also mount an attack of his own at several points, especially after Makhachev faded later in the fight. Remember that fifth round: Volkanovski on top and raining down blows.

Volkanovski found out that Makhachev was strong but not as strong as he’d prepared for and could actually implement some of the grappling that he’s beaten so many featherweights with.

Sweeps! That’s one thing that I saw from Volkanovski that he under-used and had a single moment of success with. Tying in with the mixing of the switch and not switching, (1) Volkanovski starts his attack in orthodox and (2) steps in with a right cross. He will (3) sneak his rear foot up and bring his lead leg deep behind Makhachev’s. Instinctually, (4) Makhachev starts to circle away from Volkanovski’s power punch from orthodox. But Volkanovski has his lead foot on side of Makhachev and he trips over it. (5) Volkanovski brings his knee up and pushes Makhachev down (6) and puts the Russian on the mat.

While sweeping from the clinch won’t be a normal thing for Volkanovski, he can sneak in a couple as he backs Makhachev to the fence. The battle of the outside foot is as old as southpaws in boxing and in MMA it is still important.

Volkanovski will end up with Makhachev hanging on his hips. It’s as sure a thing as death and taxes. He defended them with great success in fight number one and can look to that for some handy tools to go to in round two.

This next sequence is a two part and probably my favorite moment from the first fight. (1) We start frame one off with Makhachev in on a single leg and Volkanovski in a sprawl. (2) Volkanovski needs to get his free leg around Makhachev’s left to get out of the takedown. He attempts to grab and pull it to him but (3) Makhachev smartly pulls the leg in to stop the attempt.

Volkanovski’s decision making is on full display in the second half of this. How does he get around the tucked leg of Makhachev?

(4) He stands up. Doing so causes Makhachev to post on his left leg and Volkanovski (5) squeezes his right leg over and he falls to the ground. He can now turn (6) into Makhachev and (7) free his leg for the full sprawl and ends up on top of Makhachev at the end of this scramble.

This creativity is what makes Volkanovski so great. He thinks on the fly and has a tool box so deep that he can come up with something for almost any situation.

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Should he find Makhachev on top of him trying to stack and pass guard, I’d expect a litany of sweeps from Volkanovski, from at tripod to inversion, to get back to his feet. With Craig Jones being his grappling coach, it will absolutely be flashy.

In our last section, we will look at how Volkanovski is creative and how he uses that to escape the takedowns. Off the (1) near-habitual switch from orthodox, Volkanovski throws a right hook as Makhachev ducks in for a takedown. Volkanovski (3) gives up the body lock but starts to give his back by turning with the takedown. (4) The Russian drives through and Volkanovski manages to get his left leg behind the knee of Makhachev into a reverse Z guard sweeping position. He will turn (5) into Makhachev more and elevate the reaped leg. As he elevates, Makhachev (6) cannot get the hooks in or into half guard. (7) Volkanovski turns and (8) grabs the overhook to reverse the position.

In addition to posting his head into the fence to prevent being smushed by Makhachev and pushing his weight forward, Volkanovski relied on this and the giggler sweep to really keep Makhachev from controlling him the whole fight. While Makhachev did rack up control time, it’s as mostly from one round where the Russian spent the round on Volkanovski’s back. If Volkanovski can avoid that situation, he can win this fight and go back to Australia a double champ.

This fight represents a bigger legacy for Volkanovski than any of the other champ-champ fights in UFC history. With Makhachev holding a win over him and being a top three pound for pound fighter, a win would put Volkanovski into GOAT talks and possibly even at the top. But he’s got a lot going against him. He’s 35. He’s fighting on short notice. He’s fighting a bigger man. But legacy isn’t built on a weak foundation and Volkanovski has every war he’s been in to get him through this fight.