UFC Vegas 71 Beforemath: Can Blaydes Avoid the Early Knockout?

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Perennial Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight contender Curtis Blaydes takes on one of the new guys to the top of the division—Sergei Pavlovich—in the UFC Fight Night 222 headliner on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. This a classic stylistic matchup in MMA, as a boxer faces a wrestler. Follow along as we break the fight down to its nuts and bolts to see who wins and who has his title hopes dashed:

PAVLOVICH: A CHANCE TO SHINE

Pavlovich was met with a tough task when he joined the UFC in 2018. After Alexander Volkov pulled out of a fight with Alistair Overeem, Pavlovich was tapped to come in and replace his fellow Russian. That fight was a huge test for the former Fight Nights Global champion, as he was handed the first loss of his career by the experienced Overeem.

Since then, Pavlovich has been nothing but a nightmare for his opposition. In five subsequent fights, Pavlovich has five first-round knockouts. The last two against Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa took less than a minute. After those two wins, Pavlovich appears to be setting himself up to have his name thrown into title contention with a victory over Blaydes. Pavlovich has heavy hands, which is apparent in his 14 knockouts in 17 wins. However, to say Blaydes is chinny and easily knocked out is not fair. His three losses were to the hardest hitters the heavyweight division has seen: the aforementioned Lewis and Francis Ngannou (twice). He was also in dire straits against Mark Hunt but, again, “The Super Samoan” is a heavy hitter like Ngannou and Lewis. Blaydes pulled that last win out.

To win at UFC Fight Night 222, Pavlovich will need to avoid a clinch situation with Blaydes. Getting caught in the clinch is what got him beat in the Overeem fight; and while Overeem’s grappling is quite good, Blaydes will get you to the ground easier if you let him. With Hunt, we saw Blaydes recover by shooting a shot on an overzealous opponent and survive to win the decision. Pavlovich will need to hurt Blaydes on the feet and not give him the chance to shoot a takedown to hold out until the next round. Be patient, land shots, let Blaydes come to you. This should be the point of attack from Pavlovich.

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We have seen Pavlovich be patient in the past, ironically in his sub-minute knockout of Tuivasa. While he did over-pursue earlier in this exchange, Pavlovich had the wherewithal to take a step back, and it paid off greatly. In Figure 1, we see (1) Pavlovich in pursuit of Tuivasa. The Aussie is hurt bad and backpedaling. Instead of letting him recover, Pavlovich keeps him from staying in the middle of the cage and has him backed to the fence. Knowing Tuivasa wants to keep him off, (2) Pavlovich looks at the left of his opponent and knows it is soon to come. He dips to the inside of that punch where he can (3) drop his right and load up. Tuivasa overextends and Pavlovich (4) pops back up and lands a right that drops him again. Now, Blaydes is not one to throw winging and wide punches like Tuivasa. He is more prone to throw a decent jab and cross. However, when Pavlovich has Blaydes hurt, he cannot over pursue. He will get caught up and taken down. That is the last place he wants to be against Blaydes early.

We know Pavlovich has power and we know Blaydes can be knocked out, so let us look at the latter’s most vulnerable moment: that brutal knockout from Lewis. Pavlovich can be certain the takedown is coming. Blaydes is a wrestler by trade, and even though his hands are vastly improved, he will still come to wrestle, especially when he feels he is behind on the scorecards. All fights start on the feet, and to get to a takedown, Blaydes has to shoot.

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In Figure 2, we see one of Blaydes’ biggest mistakes. He does not watch for his opponents hips or hands when he is shooting a takedown. Lewis, who is always looking for a quick night at the office, had the medicine for that. After boxing up Lewis, Blaydes decided to (1) shoot on him. Knowing that the takedown is coming, Lewis has the right hand ready. Notice (2) how during the shot, Blaydes is looking straight down at Lewis’ feet. Meanwhile, Lewis has the right uppercut already on a collision course with the takedown attempt. Because Blaydes is looking down, (3) the uppercut from Lewis lands perfectly clean. As we all know, (4) Blaydes was knocked out cold.

Blaydes is still an excellent fighter and likely better than 95% of the heavyweights on the planet. However, he still makes mistakes that are easy to exploit. Pavlovich might get the chance of his life and beat Blaydes to put himself in the conversation for a crack at Jon Jones or the next title shot should “Bones” retire.

BLAYDES: ATTENTION TO DETAIL

Having been on the receiving end of some brutal knockouts, Blaydes knows his limitations. Going into the fight with third-ranked Pavlovich, he surely is going to want to wrestle. With Ngannou no longer the champion, Blaydes has a real shot at finally fighting for the heavyweight title and, in all honesty, looks like a good matchup for Jones. However, the man in front of him is Pavlovich—a heavy-hitting boxer who can put his lights out.

Blaydes will not want to fool around on the feet for too long in this fight. He should want Pavlovich worried about the takedown from the beginning. Shooting could perhaps give Pavlovich PTSD from the Overeem fight and make him overcompensate for the takedown threat by keeping his hands low. This helps Blaydes soften up Pavlovich on the feet before a full-hearted takedown is attempted. Should the takedown be there on the first shot, Blaydes will take it, but the purpose is to remind Pavlovich that this is a no-holds-barred fight, not a boxing match.

Blaydes has been working on his hands for some time now, and they have greatly improved. With a good jab and a cross, he works himself into range but has not been able to put it together flawlessly just yet. He has found himself in some awkward transitions, with some working and some not. Keeping Pavlovich at the end of his jab and pairing it with the threat of the takedown can serve Blaydes well by piling up points. Even a knockout is possible, as we saw against Chris Daukaus.

In looking at Pavlovich’s fight with Overeem, we can glean how Blaydes can get a takedown without having to shoot a shot or look at his opponent. Now that he is more confident on his feet, boxing his way into the pocket or putting Pavlovich against the fence can give Blaydes a chance at some clinch situations to get the Russian down.

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Figure 3 shows Overeem boxing into a Thai clinch with Pavlovich. (1) Overeem is walking down Pavlovich and (2) will throw the jab to further close the distance. Off the jab, Overeem will load up the big right to come over the top. (3) When he does throw that right hand, he does not push past Pavlovich as one does in striking. He rests it on Pavlovich’s shoulder—right in place to grab the back of the head. (4) Overeem reaches with his left hand and now grabs the full Thai clinch, threatening a knee, elbow and a litany of other damaging blows that has Pavlovich wanting to exit as soon as he can.

Boxing into a clinch situation like this, or against the fence even, will prevent any mishaps associated with Blaydes looking for his top game. His jab is good enough to be respected, and his right just has to find the mark. While Blaydes has not used the Thai clinch that often in the past, it would help him get to that top game and add another dynamic to his attempts.

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Once Overeem has Pavlovich controlled, (1) he bullies around the Russian, wrenching him left and right. To complete the takedown, Overeem will (2) step his right leg around the left of Pavlovich, reaping the leg and creating a leverage point to complete the trip. Instead of falling on top of him, (3) Overeem throws Pavlovich to the ground. This completes the takedown. Overeem would go on to finish with some ground-and-pound. Blaydes will not look to throw Pavlovich to the ground. He will control him on the way down, negating any opportunities for a scramble while also not allowing his opponent up. Once he is there, Blaydes can ride him out and make life miserable, or he can ground him out and make it a short night.

One thing is for certain: Blaydes needs to impress if he wants in on the Jones sweepstakes. A win over the only fighter ahead of him not named Stipe Miocic provides that opportunity. Blaydes just needs to go out and execute. This is his chance, and he can make a huge statement about being the rightful challenger to the heavyweight throne.