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Light Heavyweights

Anthony Johnson (17-4, 8-4 UFC) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-5, 4-2 UFC)

The Matchup: When this fight was announced, it seemed like everyone kept waiting for “Minotoro” to pull out with an injury; he has done so four times in the last three years while fighting only twice. Against all odds, the 38-year-old Nogueira made it to fight week without tearing a ligament, breaking a bone or suffering some other more-or-less-explicable ailment. Standing across the Octagon from Nogueira will be the rising Johnson, who has ballooned from a laughably huge welterweight into a brick house of a light heavyweight.

Following a six-fight winning streak outside the UFC after his failure to make the middleweight limit -- by 11 pounds against Vitor Belfort -- and release from the organization, Johnson put a vicious, three-round beating on Phil Davis at UFC 172 in April. His move to the Blackzilians has paid dividends, as outstanding coach Henri Hooft rebuilt Johnson’s inconsistent striking from the ground up into a fundamentally sound but still incredibly dangerous approach on the feet. He has the power to drop anybody in the division, and now he has the ability to apply it consistently, over three rounds, without having to worry about gassing. To top it all off, he is still a capable wrestler with a potent top game and less of a tendency to grapple himself into bad spots than earlier in his career.

While Nogueira has grown older, he has hardly been stagnant. He has complemented his rugged, relatively low-output boxing and high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu with an excellent defensive wrestling game over the past few years, although he remains a poor offensive wrestler. Given how little he has fought -- four times in the last four years, with no fights since a surprising upset of Rashad Evans in February 2013 -- it is difficult to gauge where he is at these days.

Despite that difficulty, it seems almost certain that this will be a striking match. If Davis could not take down Johnson, there is almost no chance Nogueira will do so. Conversely, while Johnson could probably plant Nogueira on the mat if he wanted, he probably will not choose to go in that direction. If Nogueira were a more reliable combination puncher with a better track record of throwing volume, he might have a shot of taking a decision on output from the occasionally lackadaisical Johnson; and while “Rumble” is not going to be confused with Nick Diaz anytime soon, he still throws enough that Nogueira probably will not be able to work that route.

The Pick: The combination of Johnson’s newfound technical skill, his improved cardio, the huge power in his shots and the likely decline of Nogueira’s chin after 13 years in the sport makes it likely that “Rumble” will land a knockout strike at some point. That should be early, given Johnson’s tendency for quick starts and the likelihood of Nogueira experiencing some ring rust. Johnson wins by knockout, via right high kick, in round one.

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