Preview: UFC 282 ‘Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev’

Middleweight

#14 MW | Dricus Du Plessis (17-2, 3-0 UFC) vs. #10 MW | Darren Till (18-4-1, 7-3-1 UFC)

ODDS: Du Plessis (-180), Till (+155)

Till is suddenly in a crucial spot, as a win would do much towards proving he can make his game work at 185 pounds. A raw welterweight prospect upon his UFC debut in 2015, Till looked solid before missing all of 2016 due to injury; and it was after that layoff that he took the division by storm. In retrospect, it seems like Till got the exact right matchmaking for his low-volume, high-power style to work its way up the ranks. He managed to quickly dispatch a late-prime Donald Cerrone before eking out a decision win against a passive Stephen Thompson in Till’s native Liverpool, England. That was enough for Till to earn a title shot at Tyron Woodley, at which point the wheels came off. Till provided enough of a blank slate for Woodley to absolutely show out on his way to a second-round finish. The UFC still centered its next card from London on Till in a main event that saw Jorge Masvidal start his career renaissance with a win via second-round knockout—a result that subsequently saw the Englishman announce a move up to middleweight. It was a choice that looked to pay dividends after a win over Kelvin Gastelum in a patient performance, but it has been hard to know what to make of Till at 185 pounds in the two fights since. Till had some early moments against Robert Whittaker in a decision loss that still gave some cause for hope, but his 2021 bout against Derek Brunson was a bit worrying. Brunson was the first opponent for Till at middleweight who was not a former welterweight, leaving “The Gorilla” without a lot of the size advantage and subsequent intimidation that makes his game work. Brunson simply found a great deal of success with his wrestling and eventually stopped Till in the third round. Till clearly is not among the middleweight elite at the moment, but it is unclear exactly where his floor lies in his current weight class. This fight against du Plessis should help sort that out.

Du Plessis has been too successful to be ignored, even if there is a sense that what he brings to the table should not really work. South Africa’s “Stillknocks” is essentially a coiled spring of elite athleticism. There does not seem to be much of a set approach heading into his fights, but manages to quickly react to his opponent’s offense and eventually land something that works. Du Plessis’ first two UFC fights—each knockout wins—showed the creative danger that he can uncork, but his last victory over Brad Tavares was an important next step. Beyond serving as the biggest victory of du Plessis’ UFC career, it also showed he can carry his power for three rounds and take a decision. This is another fight where Till will not have much of a size advantage, but it is difficult to tell if that matters against someone as perennially tense as du Plessis. However, the South African is more likely than most to actually weaponize his anxiety into some effective offense. This could be quite an ugly fight built around a few explosive clashes. The bet is that du Plessis finds the harder shots, even if that is a bit of a coinflip. The pick is du Plessis via third-round knockout.

Jump To »
Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Pimblett vs. Gordon
Ponzinibbio vs. Morono
Du Plessis vs. Till
Topuria vs. Mitchell
The Prelims