Preview: UFC 282 ‘Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev’

Featherweights

#14 FW | Ilia Topuria (12-0, 4-0 UFC) vs. #9 FW | Bryce Mitchell (15-0, 6-0 UFC)

ODDS: Topuria (-135), Mitchell (+115)

Top featherweight prospects collide in what sticks out as the gem of this card. Mitchell gets a lot of notice for his personality and what he says, enough so that it is almost a bit forgotten exactly how good he has looked inside the cage. “Thug Nasty” was a cast member on “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2018 and looked UFC-ready, but he also figured to take his lumps as a one-dimensional grappling specialist. At first, Mitchell turned out to just be plain better at his strengths than most expected, clamping only the second twister submission finish in UFC history against Matt Sayles and managing to outwrestle Andre Fili. His March win over Edson Barboza served as a true breakout as both a well-rounded fighter and potential contender. Mitchell held his own with one of the more feared strikers in the UFC before taking over with his wrestling, turning what figured to be his toughest test to date into an absolute blowout win. Nine months later, Mitchell takes on Topuria, who has looked similarly impressive in his charge up the division.

Topuria’s entry to the UFC was much quieter, stepping in as a late replacement in 2020, though “El Matador” was clearly a prospect to watch at the time. His approach looked simple but effective, built around straightforward but powerful striking leading into an impressive wrestling and grappling game. That came through in his debut victory over Youssef Zalal, but it was wins over Damon Jackson and Ryan Hall that showed Topuria could mark himself as a top contender sooner rather than later. The win over Jackson—which has aged quite well in retrospect—saw Topuria string together some diverse striking and brutal body work for a quick knockout. The first-round finish of Hall showed that Topuria can check his aggression and pick his spots against a tricky and dangerous opponent. Unfortunately, it has mostly been a lost year and a half for Topuria since the Hall fight. Weight cut issues scrapped a fight with Charles Jourdain, and a subsequent move up to lightweight thankfully appears to be a one-off. Topuria eventually scored a knockout win but found himself in trouble against a much larger striker in Jai Herbert. That does raise some worries here, as Mitchell is both the larger fighter and impressively accurate on the feet. Given the pressure that Topuria prefers to apply, it is not all that outlandish to imagine him running right into a surprising knockout blow. Assuming Topuria does not get caught, he is the harder shot-for-shot hitter and much more insistent in terms of forcing the issue. More importantly, he looks capable enough to turn any wrestling and grappling exchanges into stalemates, thus neutralizing Mitchell’s best weapons. It will not be easy, but the pick is Topuria via decision.

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Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Pimblett vs. Gordon
Ponzinibbio vs. Morono
Du Plessis vs. Till
Topuria vs. Mitchell
The Prelims