Preview: UFC 281 ‘Adesanya vs. Pereira’

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Lightweights

#12 LW | Dan Hooker (21-12, 11-8 UFC) vs. Claudio Puelles (12-2, 5-1 UFC)

ODDS: Hooker (-145), Puelles (+125)

Can Hooker correct these terrible vibes? Hooker’s rise to lightweight contender status was fun to watch. Signed as a featherweight when the UFC needed local talent for a card in Auckland, New Zealand, back in 2014, “The Hangman” finally unlocked his potential once he moved up to 155 pounds in 2017. The Kiwi eventually landed on an adaptable approach against a high level of competition. Pressure was the way to success against Jim Miller and Gilbert Burns, while a 2019 victory over Al Iaquinta showed Hooker’s ability to lean on his reach and outmaneuver a slower opponent. A June 2020 main event against Dustin Poirier was a big opportunity for Hooker that did not hurt him much even in defeat. Hooker found early success in an entertaining scrap that was one of the better fights of the year and kept him in the running for major bouts going forward. Come 2021, that led to Hooker welcoming Michael Chandler to the UFC in what was a much more concerning defeat. Hooker got convinced to retreat early and, from there, left himself open to a quick knockout—a surprising result given his historical level of durability. Hooker eventually rebounded with a victory over Nasrat Haqparast, then stepped in about a month later for a quick loss against Islam Makhachev. The result clearly closed Hooker’s path to the lightweight title for the time being, but it also was not particularly damaging against a man who went on to become champion. That made it a surprise when Hooker announced what turned out to be an ill-fated cut back down to featherweight. Hooker made the weight fine but did not look particularly effective, as Arnold Allen stopped him in about two and a half minutes. Hooker now moves back to 155 pounds against one of the division's more surprising success stories in Puelles.

Peru’s Puelles came to the UFC as a raw 20-year-old and immediately became an afterthought. Martin Bravo knocked him out in the final of the last season of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America,” and it was nearly two years before Puelles returned, at which point he likely saved his job with a miracle come-from-behind kneebar submission of Felipe Silva. That suggested Puelles would just get beat pillar to post by anyone who could avoid getting submitted, but it turns out that has been a tough ask. Puelles leaned on his wrestling for two more wins and has suddenly become a kneebar specialist, finding finishes of Chris Gruetzemacher and Clay Guida via the same technique. It is a record-breaking bit of business—nobody else has multiple wins via kneebar in UFC history—but does feel unsustainable, even if Puelles did flash impressive creativity and speed in finding the finish against Guida. Hooker does not seem to be in the best place, so there is a chance he charges right into a successful gamble from Puelles, but he should be able to exploit many of the holes that “The Prince of Peru” offers. If nothing else, Puelles is a raw striker that Hooker should be able to pick apart from range if he decides to stay patient. There is obvious risk in aggression, but Hooker would be well-served to make this a bit ugly and coast to a win. The pick is Hooker via decision.

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Adesanya vs. Pereira
Esparza vs. Zhang
Poirier vs. Chandler
Gutierrez vs. Edgar
Hooker vs. Puelles
The Prelims