Prime Picks: UFC 274 ‘Oliveira vs. Gaethje’

After watching a handful of events tread water, the Ultimate Fighting Championship will go full-bore on Saturday in Phoenix with a pair of title fights and a two-piece of action-packed matchups on the main card. A little less than half the bouts on the billing see betting favorites at -200 or above, but underdogs and plus money are where the action is at for this show. The UFC 274 edition of Prime Picks expects both titles to change hands in decent upsets, predicts a clash between beloved bonus winners will not end quickly and takes a risk that a heavyweight tilt will go the distance.

Justin Gaethje Wins by TKO/KO (+200)

At plus money already, the Gaethje moneyline at +145 is appealing to those who believe “The Highlight” will finally win the lightweight strap. Given Gaethje’s approach to combat and the fact that he will have five rounds with which to work, his getting it done in his preferred method of knockout is an even more worthwhile and reasonable play. If Gaethje does win, it will be by knockout, not by club-and-sub or having outworked his counterpart across five rounds of brutal action. With nine of his last 10 wins coming by knockout—the one decision was against fellow UFC 274 participant Michael Chandler after a three-round battle for the ages—there is only one speed for Gaethje. While incumbent champion Charles Oliveira has recently faced powerful finishers like Chandler and Dustin Poirier, Gaethje’s stunning power is a game changer.

In Oliveira’s championship-clinching win against Chandler and his first title defense against Poirier, “Do Bronx” took a serious beating and came back strong. Even if he is not historically a slow starter himself, he comes to blows with a fast-charging fighter in Gaethje who celebrates nine career knockouts in Round 1 and will threaten him almost immediately. The Brazilian was once barely at the level of a means-to-an-end striker, using his strikes to close into the clinch or set up a takedown, but he has upped his game immensely. No longer needing to rely on his UFC record-setting submission skills, the grappler has developed serious power in both hands and his other limbs on his way to the top. The danger? Oliveira’s confidence in his striking prowess may leave him vulnerable, relatively speaking, as he could engage on Gaethje’s terms instead of his own.

Based on the sheer ferocity of these two men—while Gaethje has earned nine of his last 10 victories by knockout, Oliveira has finished nine of his 10 opponents, as well—this one does not appear to be the kind of matchup that lasts long. Given the danger that Gaethje presents until he gets put out, his rising line is growing in value every day during fight week. There exists the possibility that Oliveira uses the approach he took against Tony Ferguson, where he required exactly three takedowns to win the fight, but few men outside of Khabib Nurmagomedov have ever put Gaethje on his back for more than a few seconds. Oliveira cannot be counted out given his success as he has developed—he remains in his prime at 32—so there are safer options for those who are confident in him but not willing to plunk down nearly $2 to make one. This can best be illustrated by the under, at either 2.5 rounds (-175) or 3.5 rounds (-250); the former is more valuable, given the track record of the two competitors in the main event.

Carla Esparza (+185)

When comparing the career trajectories of the former champ and two-time divisional queen Rose Namajunas, it is clear who has developed more as a fighter over the years. Once barely serviceable on the feet, with flashes of brilliance and unexpected threats like flying armbars, the tutelage of Trevor Wittman over the years has transformed Namajunas into a complete fighter in every facet of her game. Exceptional hand speed, surprising pop on her punches relative to her weight class and a head kick that can flatten even the most durable strawweight all have developed and made her one of the biggest threats in her division. The only hole in her game that still remains is her ability to stop a shot from a stronger grappler, and that happens to be exactly where Esparza can capitalize as the underdog.

“Cookie Monster” made a statement to earn a title shot when she pounded out a woman in Xiaonan Yan who had never been knocked out; it gave Esparza her first stoppage since joining the promotion on that fateful night in 2014. Although it took place over seven and a half years ago, Esparza can still glean some tactics from her first meeting with “Thug Rose,” which saw her lead the dance and shrug off most of Namajunas’ strikes. Keeping Namajunas expecting the takedown will open up some offense on the feet, but she should be primarily focused on grounding the champion and taking the worst of her out of the equation. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials of both women may not be black belt level, but they should keep Esparza safe from armbars and whatnot while Namajunas is on her back. It might not be thrilling, but Esparza’s skill set brings exactly the kind of suffocating wrestling that will put rounds in the bank. If Weili Zhang can put Namajunas on her back for extended periods of a fight, Esparza can replicate that success in spades.

A parlay for both belts to change hands—with Gaethje and Esparza getting their hands raised at night’s end—is a powerful +601. On the other hand, a champion’s accumulator of Oliveira and Namajunas both getting it done clocks in at +127, making it suitable if one expects a night of title defenses. One final “split ticket” option selects that the Wittman-coached fighters of Gaethje and Namajunas both win, which is currently +254 when lumped together. Choose your options accordingly in order to maximize your winnings when it comes to these two-leg parlays that should be plus-territory no matter how you slice it.

Donald Cerrone-Joe Lauzon Goes Over 1.5 Rounds (-140)

Fight fans often lament a clash of all-action legends that comes too late, especially when both grow to become elder statesmen in their division before they come together. The concerns of Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell meeting a few years too late or the clash of Carlos Condit and Matt Brown similarly needing to happen earlier are well-founded but sometimes mistaken. In those examples, the gentlemen matched with similar age and experience throw down, and while it might not be a prime version of the fighters in question, glimpses of greatness often come out. This will hold true between Cerrone and Lauzon in a matchup that might otherwise be shocking for two fighters who have already appeared a combined 64 times in the Octagon. There is no doubt they have both lost a step—at age 39 and 37, respectively—which leads to the play of this fight lasting more than 7:30 being a reasonable one.

It is possible that these lightweights come out guns blazing, in an effort to record one final dramatic victory as fast as they can before cardio abandons ship. The durability of both “Cowboy” and “J-Lau” has waned to a considerable degree, where a shoulder strike from Conor McGregor rocks Cerrone or an uppercut from Clay Guida knocks Lauzon off his feet. The oft-said phrase is that “the last thing to go is the power,” and that could ring true in this one after the first exchange sees someone rattled. Knowing that this could very well be the end, the approaches of the skidding Cerrone and returning Lauzon might be tentative, waiting to find their openings as they are fully aware of their own vulnerabilities. The men with the most (Cerrone, 18) and third-most (Lauzon, 15) post-fight bonuses can still deliver a memorable battle, but it should be one that goes beyond the midpoint of the second round.

Blagoy Ivanov-Marcos Rogerio de Lima Goes to Decision (+120)

This final play may butt heads with conventional wisdom, as a bit over a quarter of all heavyweight fights throughout UFC history go to a decision. In a weight category where nearly half of the fights have ended by knockout, very moderate plus money appears undervalued given how bouts at the highest weight class play out. However, when factoring in the competitors involved—a man in Ivanov who has not seen any of his five UFC fights end inside the distance, and a former light heavyweight who bulked up in a huge way to max out the scale—it seems much more likely to occur. Ivanov’s durability is second to none, as he has never once succumbed to strikes in his pro career. However, Rogerio de Lima’s vulnerability is not something Ivanov has shown an ability to exploit, which would come by putting the burly Brazilian on his back. This fight has all the makings of one that goes the distance.

The Bulgarian brawler is so tough that he was once stabbed during a bar fight in the heart and hailed a cab for himself to get to the hospital. What good are punches and knees from “Pezao” when compared to that legendary toughness? If Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa and a still-relevant Junior dos Santos can land their hardest shots on him and not shake him, it is not likely that Rogerio de Lima will be the one to crack the chin. On the heels of six straight decisions and entering into his first match in nearly two years, Ivanov will likely fight smart and safe, bullying the Brazilian back to the wall where he does some of his best work. In doing so, time will fall off the clock as the rounds progress, and neither man will be able to land a finishing blow when the gas tanks run on empty.